Day 2 Convective Outlook for Atlantic Canada Valid for June 29th, 2018

 

Day Two Convective Outlook

 

An increase in the low level moisture as well as a cold trough at 500 mb will act to destabilize the airmass tomorrow for central Labrador and much of the Maritimes. New Brunswick will see the highest potential for severe weather with surface CAPES over 1500 J/kg and Precipitable Water values > 30mm. It is likely that heavy downpours could become an issue  in thunderstorms and to a lesser degree there is some potential for squall line development through the afternoon which could bring strong winds as well. Areas that receive large amounts of rain tonight will be under the greatest threat should thunderstorms develop tomorrow.

 

Mel Lemmon

Day 1 Convective Outlook for Atlantic Canada Valid for June 18th, 2018

 

Convective Discussion

 

There are a couple areas of interest today one over Western Labrador the other over the southwestern portion of the Maritimes. Over Western Labrador the dynamics for severe weather are favourable this morning but becoming less of an issue later in the day.  Non the less there is still some potential for thunderstorms with Gusts in the 60-70 km/hr range mainly do due to the combination of developing downdrafts and mixing of stronger winds aloft. Just west of Labrador there is an indication that dry microbursts could develop but this airmass is not likely to move over Labrador until tonight. Convective rainfall is not expected to be an issue.

 

Over Southwestern NS and NB embedded TS are possible beginning later this evening and into tomorrow morning. This is likely cause some heavier rainfall amounts in thunderstorms and possibly localized flooding.

 

Regional Impacts

 

For Labrador

Gusty winds possible for western Labrador should TS develop this afternoon and early this evening.

 

NS and NB

Embedded TS causing heavier downpours in rain that will continue through tonight.

 

For PEI

No impacts expected.

 

For Newfoundland

Very low probability of Convective Showers becoming TS early today just north of the island.

 

Mel Lemmon