Convective Outlook for the Maritimes valid for tomorrow July 12th

This is an update to the previous forecast for tomorrow July 12^th.

 

With a higher level of confidence I have updated the outlook for tomorrow to include a increased area of severe weather for northwestern New Brunswick. Most of the outlook remains the same with a chance of organised convection late in the afternoon, overall updrafts are not particularly strong but favourable dynamics may be enough to produce severe storms, with heavy rain and potentially strong wind gusts.

 

ML

 

 

Thunderstorm Outlook for Day 2

 

Convective Outlook Valid for Today and Tomorrow and Wednesday

Regional Impacts

For Today... Minimal impacts expected with only a slight chance of thunderstorms expected parts of New Brunswick and Labrador.

For Tomorrow... Organized convection possible late tomorrow afternoon and evening for northern New Brunswick, locally heavy downpours can be expected.

Convective Discussion

No significant convection is expected today with little potential energy and no significant forcings. Tomorrow the dynamics will begin to organize with an approaching upper trough and increasing mid level shear. There is still some uncertainty with the amount of CAPE with expected values around 500 J/kg, but with high Precipitable Water values approaching 50mm some locally heavy downpours could occur. In addition there is a slight risk that organized convection in the form of a squall line or QLCS (quasi linear convective system) may form further west and move over NB late in the afternoon. As the system develops we will have a better understanding of the potential, please look for the updated outlook tomorrow.

Mel Lemmon

Outlook for Today

Outlook For Tomorrow

Outlook for Wednesday