Regional Impacts
NB: None
NS: None
PEI: None
NF: None
Labrador: Isolated thunderstorms possible over northwestern sections later today into this evening.
Marine waters: Isolated thunderstorms for Laurentian Fan and East Scotian Slope by later today into this evening.
Convective Discussion: Two areas of focus for convection today. The primary area of concern will be over northwestern Labrador where surface based convection initiating in north-central Quebec will move eastward towards a QS upper ridge positioned over central Labrador. Any convection will become elevated and more isolated as it moves towards this region, as upper level dynamics become less favourable. Nevertheless an isolated strike cannot be ruled out entirely with marginal MUCAPES of ~200 J/kg. The second area of convection will be located to the east of a cut-off low over the eastern slope waters. Here convection is expected to be elevated forced by decent instability (MUCAPES ~500 J/Kg), and a strong LLJ (~30-35 kts at 850 mb). However it should be isolated in nature given that the best synoptic ascent will be located well to the SW (near the cut-off low). Over the next two days this area of concern is expected to gradually advect west-northwest, and convection should increase in frequency from isolated to scattered as PVA becomes more aligned with the area of instability and the LLJ. Continued moisture advection to the from the subtropics will cause PWATs to rise into the mid 40s by Thursday evening, so if elevated convection does manage to make it to land, rainfall rates will become a primary hazard.
Thunderstorm outlook for today:
Thunderstorm outlook for tonight:
Thunderstorm outlook for Thursday:
Thunderstorm outlook for Thursday night into Friday:
