Regional Impacts
Today
NB/PEI/Les Iles/NS: none
NL&LAB: showers exiting the province
Tuesday
NB/NS: A few embedded thunderstorms late in the day in warm air advection over western regions.
PEI/Les Iles: none
NL&LAB: Risk of a thunderstorm over northern and central portions of Labrador
Convective Discussion
The upper low has moved east of NF this morning, and the associated residual shower activity will taper off during the day. An upper ridge is building over the Maritimes, however as the diurnal instability increases cumulus field will develop across the region. Cloud top between 2-4 km with maximum of 5 km can be expected.
On Tuesday, bands of thunderstorms from New England/Gulf of Maine will be advancing in the warm advection over the Maritimes late in the day. To a lesser extent warm air advection will also promote some thunderstorm activity over northern Que, possibly reaching Labrador. Instability will not be the greatest but this moisture-rich airmass will bring surface dewpoints to 18-20, and at the end of the day, a swath of moisture with precip water of 40-50 mm will extend from Browns bank/Lurcher to the St. Lawrence valley. The main forecast models show a surface low moving across eastern Ont/southern Que Tuesday, and then over NB and Gulf of St. Lawrence Wednesday. At this time, an average of the precipitation guidance would suggest totals of 50-80 mm with the maximum amounts over the lower St. Lawrence/Gaspé/northern NB. These numbers are preliminary for the large scale and could be augmented if smaller embedded/elevated convective features become more predominant.
Thunderstorm Outlook for Today
Thunderstorm Outlook for Tonight
Thunderstorm Outlook for Tomorrow
