Regional Impacts
Today: scattered thunderstorms this afternoon and evening for portions of the MRTMs and southern NL giving gusty winds, small hail and downpours. I do not anticipate severe cells, but rainfall could become a concern in the MRTMs if convection is slow-moving.
Tonight: risk of a thunderstorm for eastern NL giving heavy downpours.
Convective Discussion
Today will feature an incoming sharp upper trough that will swing down across the southern Gulf of St. Lawrence then eventually move east of NL by Tuesday morning. At first glance the trough looks inviting for a good active day but, much like yesterday, there is a lack of instability. There should be some scattered thunderstorms develop but nothing to write home about. As the upper trough continues moving into the region the freezing levels will be dropping so under some of the heavier precipitation bands there could be a fair amount of hail locally…but small in nature (a cm or less in diameter). The shear will be in the 30-40 knot range just ahead of the upper trough, so some strong gusts are possible as well. The PWATs favour the best rainfall potential in eastern NS and southern NL. The risk for thunder will persist tonight for eastern/southeastern NL just ahead of the upper trough.
Things will get quiet for several days after today with nothing expected until later this week.
Thunderstorm Outlook for Today
Thunderstorm Outlook for Tonight
Thunderstorm Outlook for Tomorrow
Jeremy
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