Regional Impacts
Today: scattered thunderstorms across southern/southwestern NB giving a threat for localized flooding. Further north just some airmass CBs giving brief downpours and possibly small hail. A risk of an afternoon/early evening thunderstorm across the interior of NL.
Monday: scattered thunderstorms likely for eastern NB, eastern NS, PEI, and southern areas of NF giving brief downpours, small hail, and gusty winds.
Convective Discussion
The main area of concern today would be high rainfall rates across southern areas of NB, as PWATs are up around 40 mm (based on the KALB sounding). The instability is on the weak side though, and given the current cloud clover we will need to see formation upstream in ME that could advect into NB this afternoon/evening. Some gusty winds could also accompany the cells as effective shear will be increasing throughout the day. There will likely be some scattered thunderstorms across the northern half of NB this afternoon as an upper trough approaches from QC. Given the increase in shear and lowering of the FZLVLs small hail and gusty winds are possible. Lastly a slight risk of an afternoon/early evening thunderstorm for the interior of NL giving brief downpours and gusty winds.
On Monday, the upper trough will be moving through eastern regions of the MRTMs and into southwestern NL, so there should be some scattered thunderstorms associated with it. Small hail looks possible given the lowering of the FZLVLs, but also brief downpours and gusty winds. Like today, the instability looks weak so could be a balance issue with the strong wind shear and updrafts…which would lead to less in the way of activity if the shear is too high.
Thunderstorm Outlook for Today
Thunderstorm Outlook for Tonight
Thunderstorm Outlook for Tomorrow
Jeremy
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