Convective Outlook Valid for Today, Tonight and Tomorrow

Regional Impacts

 

Today

NS/NB/PEI/NFLD/LAB: None.

 

Tonight

NS/NB/PEI/NFLD/LAB: None.

 

Saturday

NB: Slight risk of a late afternoon thundershower in NWern regions with brief heavy downpours.

NS/PEI/NFLD/LAB : None

 

Convective Discussion

Atlantic Canada remains fairly quiet today with a ridge of high pressure across the Martimes with a cold front exiting eastern Newfoundland this morning and a semi quasi-stationary low pressure system siting south of the Maritimes marine district. A weak trough across central and southern Quebec into central Maine along with increasing surface temperatures and cooler air aloft aid in the triggering of isolated thundershowers this afternoon and evening but are not expected to persist into New Brunswick.

For Saturday, the trough will move eastward and provide some scattered showers across New Brunswick in the morning.  An approaching low pressure system moves into southern Quebec by Saturday afternoon, ahead of this system within the warm sector, scattered showers with risk of non-severe isolated thundershowers are possible mainly for northwestern New Brunswick where convective temperatures are mostly like to be reached and there is sufficient lift and effective shear to maintain convection. Weak troughing is also expected across northern Quebec into central and southeastern Labrador, giving isolated showers.

The low pressure system will track across northern New Brunswick and into the Gulf of St. Lawrence Saturday night and into Sunday with possible embedded convection.

Thunderstorm Outlook for Today

Thunderstorm Outlook for Tonight

Thunderstorm Outlook for Tomorrow

Forecaster: McArthur

Convective Outlook Valid for Today , Tonight and Tomorrow

Regional Impacts

 

Today

NS/NB/PEI/NFLD/LAB: None.

 

Tonight

NS/NB/PEI/NFLD/LAB: None.

 

Friday

NS/NB/PEI/NFLD/LAB: None.

 

Convective Discussion

The quiet convective weather will persist over Atlantic Canada today and Friday. A ridge of high pressure over the southern Marine District will drift away as a weak trough currently over the Lower North Shore of Quebec continues moving southward.  Any instability today should be limited to areas of central Quebec and the Gaspe Peninsula.

Thunderstorm Outlook for Today

Thunderstorm Outlook for Tonight

Thunderstorm Outlook for Tomorrow

 

Convective Outlook Valid for Today, Tonight and Tomorrow

Regional Impacts

NS/NB/PEI/NFLD/LAB: None.

Convective Discussion…

A quiet couple of days are in store for Atlantic Canada as a ridge of high pressure settles over the region. Some weak troughing exists over central Labrador this morning, however dry low levels and a lack of instability should prevent any thundershowers from developing this afternoon as the trough slowly drifts south.

Some isolated thundershowers are possible east of Sable Island today around a weak vorticity center, but will remain well offshore.

Thunderstorm Outlook for Today

Thunderstorm Outlook for Tonight

Thunderstorm Outlook for Tomorrow

Forecaster: Copp

Convective Outlook Valid for Today , Tonight and Tomorrow

Regional Impacts

NB, PEI and NS: Scattered showers with a risk of thunderstorms. 15-20mm of rain possible in thunderstorms.

Newfoundland and Labrador: Thunderstorms not expected.

Convective Discussion

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will move slowly across southern New Brunswick into Nova Scotia and possibly PEI today. While updraft strength will be limited, weak upper-level support associated with a jet streak and a 500 hPa trough may aid development. Low freezing levels could allow for small hail. No significant impacts are expected.

Conditions improve tomorrow as fair weather returns.

Thunderstorm Outlook for Today

Thunderstorm Outlook for Tonight

Thunderstorm Outlook for Tomorrow

 

Mel lemmon

Convective Outlook Valid for Today , Tonight and Tomorrow

Regional Impacts

Newfoundland and Labrador: No thunderstorms expected.

Nova Scotia and PEI: No thunderstorms expected today, tomorrow scattered weak thunderstorms possibly giving 10 to 20mm of rain.

New Brunswick: Weak thunderstorms over northern areas today, spreading southward tomorrow with 15 to 20mm of rain possible in heaviest showers.

Convective Discussion

This is the first official thunderstorm outlook of the season, and it’s starting off relatively quiet. A weak surface trough moving slowly across the Maritimes will bring a low chance of thunderstorms to northern New Brunswick today.

Tomorrow, that surface trough will align with a weak upper-level trough, leading to a slightly increased potential for showers and thunderstorms overall. Southern New Brunswick, northern Nova Scotia, and possibly PEI could receive upwards of 15–20 mm of rainfall, although there remains some uncertainty as to whether those amounts will be realized.

The exact location and intensity of precipitation may shift as the upper low evolves tomorrow.

Thunderstorm Outlook for Today

Thunderstorm Outlook for Tonight

Thunderstorm Outlook for Tomorrow