Day 2 Convective Outlook for Atlantic Canada Valid for June 1, 2018

 

Convective Discussion

 

A warm and humid air mass will approach New Brunswick on Friday ahead of a low pressure system moving eastward over Quebec. The atmosphere will be conducive for the development of thunderstorms in the afternoon given increasing moisture in the low levels, moderate low level wind shear and high maximum temperatures. These ingredients along with an approaching cold front will help de-stabilize the air mass and initiate afternoon showers and potential thundershowers over northwestern New Brunswick beginning in the afternoon and spread southeastward into the evening.

 

Regional Impacts

 

The main threat with the potential thundershowers will be local heavy downpours and some moderate gusts.

 

 

Roberta McArthur

 

 

Day 1 Convective Outlook for Atlantic Canada Valid for May 31, 2018

 

Convective Discussion

 

No convection expected in the Maritimes and Newfoundland today mainly due to a warm but dry airmass providing wide scale subsidence under a ridge of high pressure. Meanwhile, a warm front is beginning to slide further east into Labrador giving rain overnight to western Labrador. Convection may be enhanced overnight due to nocturnal cooling but at this time thunderstorms are not expected.

Regional Impacts

 

None

 

 

Roberta McArthur

 

Day 1 Convective Outlook for Atlantic Canada Valid May 30th, 2018

 

Convective Discussion

 

No convection expected in the Maritimes and Labrador today due to a warm, dry airmass providing wide scale subsidence under a ridge of high pressure. There are showers over eastern Newfoudland  as a low pressure system spins off the eastern coast of Newfoundland but the airmass remains to stable for thunderstorms to develop.

 

Regional Impacts

 

None

 

 

Roberta McArthur

 

Day 1 Convective Outlook for Atlantic Canada May 29, 2018

Convective Discussion

Very dry air mass with warm air aloft combined with subsidence due to approaching high pressure will likely result in no convective activity today for the Maritimes.

There are showers currently over NFLD but the air mass is too stable for any thundershowers to develop.

 

Regional Impacts

None

 

Barrie MacKinnon

Roberta McArthur

 

Day 1 Convective Outlook for Atlantic Canada May 28, 2018

Convective Discussion

Risk of non-severe thundershowers tonight over New Brunswick as a cold front sweeps across the province.  If any thundershowers develop, they should begin near midnight over northwestern New Brunswick then track southeastward with the front.  Stability is quite low so thundershowers are expected to remain below warning criteria.  Nocturnal cooling could help with the development of thundershowers but even then should not reach warning criteria.

Regional Impacts

Localised heavy short lived showers with up to 10 mm possible,  small chance of hail below 2 cm and wind gusts of up to 40 km/h.  

Barrie MacKinnon