Day 1 Convective Outlook for Atlantic Canada Valid for August 15th, 2018

 

Convective Discussion

 

Thunderstorms are expected to form ahead of a cold front approaching from Quebec. There is potential for very heavy downpours or rain, strong winds and possible hail over northern New Brunswick this afternoon and to a lesser extent over central New Brunswick early this evening. Elsewhere some thundershower activity is either occurring or possible today in the areas highlighted. Thundershowers over Labrador are giving significant lightning and possibly gusty winds. However, these thundershowers won’t likely be severe.  

 

Technical Discussion

There is a 250 mb Jet of 75 to 90 knots extending from the Gulf of Maine to northern NB to southern Labrador. There is a deep layer thermal ridge extending from Cape Hatteras to Newfoundland. The associated low level Jet is 20 to 30 knots. The primary triggers are sunshine and the cold front over southern Quebec. Cape values are over 1000 J/kg over the primary threat area. However, there is a cap at 750 – 800 mb that needs to broken before significant thunderstorms can form. Rainfall rates over northern NB could exceed 25mm in an hour due to the fact the airmass is very moist and steering flow is moderate around 20 to 25 knots. There could also be some training of cells due to unidirectional flow from the sfc to 500 mb.

Regional Impacts.

 

Primarily NB, but also Lab.

 

Hatt

 

Day 1 Convective Outlook for Atlantic Canada Valid for August 14th, 2018

 

Convective Discussion

 

Isolated thunderstorms along a frontal band which extends from James Bay to Labrador.

 

Technical Discussion

Surface ridge over the Gulf of St. Lawrence and Newfoundland will prevail today. A surface low over NY state is pushing moisture over NB and western NS, however with no trigger to speak of and limited daytime surface heating,  instability will be limited to elevated Cu,  isolated TCU and even some ACC. The Caribou and Yarmouth soundings show potential instability but a warm nose at 750mb and cloud cover prevent any surface development.

A frontal feature tied to a surface low near James Bay and very strong dynamics aloft, continue to produce organized clusters of thunderstorms again this morning. An area of high precipitable water (30+mm) stretches from the low into Labrador and is indicative of potential brief heavy showers. Storm motion is eastward under a 100 knot slightly anti-cyclonic upper jet. This core of this feature will drift eastward during the next 24 hours or so bringing a risk of thunderstorms to central and western Labrador.

Regional Impacts.

 

NB, PEI, NS and Newfoundland: none

 

Labrador:  Isolated thunderstorms producing brief heavier showers and 60km/h wind gusts over central and west portions.

 

 

Couturier

 

 

Day 1 Convective Outlook for Atlantic Canada Valid for August 13th, 2018

Convective Discussion

Isolated thunderstorms associated with a warm and humid airmass over New England will slowly propagate northward during the next day.

Technical Discussion

Surface ridge will prevail today across the region. A surface low south of New England will continue to push moisture, however with no trigger to speak of, surface-based instability will be limited to cumulus and perhaps a few towering cumulus. The Gray sounding from 12z showed some potential for CB’s but due to the incoming mid/High cloud cover coming in surface heating will not be sufficient.

A frontal feature near James Bay, supported by very strong dynamics aloft, is producing organized clusters of thunderstorms this morning. This feature will drift southeastward during the next 24 hours or so bringing a slight risk of thunderstorms to western Labrador tonight.

Regional Impacts.

Atlantic Provinces: none

Marine waters: Isolated thunderstorms for Gulf of Maine possibly reaching Lurcher late in the forecast period

Couturier

Day 1 Convective Outlook for Atlantic Canada Valid for August 10, 2018

Convective Discussion

 

Tricky situation today over Atlantic Canada, NWP is failing on the resolution of features, and timing issues plague the obvious generation of potential convection. Isolated thundershowers are possible across the region today.

 

Technical Discussion

 

A low pressure system near southeastern Labrador will track north-northeastward today as an approaching trough begins to tilt the steering flow more “meridional”. The associated wave with this low passing through the island will continue to bring humid conditions to the island prior to the passage of the aforementioned features. Well established warm sector showers with heavy embedded showers over eastern Newfoundland will persist throughout the day as low level jets ahead of the primary front continue to pump in moisture. Saint John’s 12Z sounding demonstrated precipitable water values near 36 mm but poor lapse rates for severe thunderstorm generation. Over eastern sections of the island only showers with heavy embedded ACC showers are expected…the risk of a thundershower seems minimal given the current evidence. For western-central Newfoundland, 12Z upper air analysis suggests that there are favourable upper level dynamics for thundershower production as the left-exit of upper level jets may be able to assist in the formation of a thundershower into this afternoon. The problem here is not available fuel, but sufficient day time heating and once again poor mid level-lapse rates. Another factor mitigating the risks of severe convection is that the low level shear may not be favourable to assist TCU showers to become CB’s. A risk of a thundershower is possible this afternoon and potentially this evening associated with the passage of the troughs and the weak upper level dynamics.

 

For western Labrador, a stacked upper centre may have sufficient vorticity to assist in lifting the odd TCU to become overzealous, thundershowers are possible simply based on the strong pre-existing angular momentum and lift present around this low…mainly south of Wabush/Lab City.

 

For Nova Scotia: Once again the Yarmouth sounding shows the potential for thunderstorm development over the province… the issue today is timing. The primary trigger should be the east-northeast ward movement of the primary, well developed, upper trough; however, linear extrapolation from 12Z to 14Z on the forward speed of this trough is was near 100km/h and although it should slow as the flow begins to tilt in a more meridional direction it may arrive too quickly. The RDPS, GFS, have some very unstable indices (lifted indices over northeastern NS and into Cape Breton are -6 to -8, GFS CAPE 1000+ J/kg ) for later this afternoon but at the current speed this primary trough may not arrive in time to fully take advantage of the extra instability created by daytime heating. So the larger threat for afternoon development then becomes the passage of the weak 850 hPa trough currently moving through New Brunswick (which is triggering thundershowers, and is unresolved by the RDPS). It is difficult to say if this 850 hPa trough will maintain its current strength as it moves east-southeastward. Although divergence ahead of the primary upper trough is present over parts of northeastern Nova Scotia at the 250hPa and 500hPa levels, nil significant divergence was identified just ahead of it, and convergence was identified in its wake. So, that being said, should this secondary feature (the 850 hPa trough) arrive mid to late afternoon, thundershowers over central then to northeastern Nova Scotia / Cape Breton are possible, and potentially a severe thunderstorm over northeastern NS and CB but they will in a tricky dynamic regime. Sea breeze fronts are not expected to develop, and convective temperatures are not expected to be reached, therefore these are not expected to be primary triggers. Should a severe thunderstorm form, strong wind gusts near 80 to 90 km/h, with small hail, and downpours may form.

 

Prince Edward Island: Queens and Prince county are not expected to be affected by the similar conditions described for northeastern Nova Scotia. Kings county is borderline, and confidence in any significant weather here is low. TCU showers are likely this afternoon, and more-so over Kings county.

 

New Brunswick: There is a weak 850 hPa trough that is moving through the region has the ability to generate TCU and Isolated CB’s. It is competing with incoming mid level stability as noted by the strong capping inversion at 700 hPa from the Caribou sounding (which  should prevent anything other then TCU generation north of this 850 hPa trough).  Isolated thundershowers are possible over the southern half of the province this afternoon. Severe thunderstorms are not expected.

 

 

Regional Impacts

 

Labrador Public:  Slight risk of thundershowers near the low south of Wabush/LabCity, TCU most likely.

 

Labrador Marine and Newfoundland Marine: No severe convection is expected.

 

Maritimes Marine: Risk of thunderstorms over the warmer southern marine regions where the gulf stream runs the hottest until passage the passage of the trough(s).

 

Newfoundland Public: Predominately showers with heavy embedded showers east. Further west, slight risk of an afternoon and evening thundershower. No severe convection expected.

 

Nova Scotia: Isolated thundershowers with a slight risk of thunderstorms primarily over northeastern Nova Scotia and Cape Breton this afternoon and early this evening. Should severe thunderstorms form, strong wind, small hail, and heavy downpours possible. Confidence at this time is low on their formation, and a severe thunderstorm watch will only likely be issued if conditions begin to align better.

 

New Brunswick: Thundershowers over the southern half of the province possible with the passage of the 850hPa trough. Thundershowers are not expected to become severe thunderstorms.

 

Marshall Hawkins

 

Operational Meteorologist – Atlantic Storm Prediction Centre, Meteorological Service of Canada

Environment and Climate Change Canada / Government of Canada

Marshall.Hawkins@canada.ca  / Tel: 902-426-7779

 

Météorologue opérationnel – Centre de prévision des intempéries - région Atlantique, Service météorologique du Canada

Environnement et Changement climatique Canada / Gouvernement du Canada

Marshall.Hawkins@canada.ca / Tél. : 902-426-7779

 

Day 1 Convective Outlook for Atlantic Canada Valid for August 9th, 2018

 

Convective Discussion

 

Lots of fuel remains over the Maritimes for the development of severe convection, the problem – as usual – is what will assist in the triggering of thunderstorms. For Newfoundland and Labrador in the very short term a ridge of high pressure will inhibit the development of severe convection.

 

Technical Discussion

 

An upper trough west of the region is helping support a surface low that will move through New Brunswick today. Ambient moisture remains high from the surface through to the mid levels and will continue to generate heavy shower producing TCU and embedded ACC today. Ahead of the approaching cold front relatively weak low level jets of near 30 knots or so below 500 hPa  will not likely favour super cell development, but afternoon thundershowers may become severe given the amount of available moisture. Freezing levels remain similar to yesterday at near 13000-14000 feet so again, without the generation of supercells, significant hail seems unlikely. Similar again to yesterday modifying the Yarmouth sounding as well as other upstream soundings above 900 hPa does produce CAPE values between 700 to 1200 J/kg, and precipitable water is near 50 mm. The curvature of the hodograph in the warm sector would favour right moving cells but in the absence of deep vertical shear, the development of super-cells would likely be hindered. Primary threats to the Maritime Public and Marine regions include heavy embedded showers ahead of the warm front with isolated, high precipitation thunderstorms, and similar conditions in behind the warm front, in the warm sector ahead of the passing cold front where marginal winds may serve to generate peak gusts near 70 to 80 km/h. In addition, the low level jets at 850 and at 700 have left exit regions that are expected to move over the bay of Fundy this afternoon, this may serve as additional support for longer lived cells just ahead of the cold front. With the current information available, evidence to support wind gusts in excess of 90 km/h is low because the majority of wind levels below 500 remain sub 45 knots; however, all cells are expected to be able to produce torrential rain.

 

Over Newfoundland and Labrador a ridge of high pressure will slowly yield to the system discussed above, and as the warm front moves through in the overnight hours, cloud top cooling may assist in the development of isolated thundershowers/thunderstorms primarily over the west coast and gulf regions. Embedded ACC giving locally heavy downpours likely.

 

Regional Impacts

 

Newfoundland and Newfoundland Marine: As the warm front passes through isolated nocturnal thunderstorms or thundershowers are possible. Mainly over the west coast (extra lift) and over the Gulf regions.

 

Nova Scotia, New Brunswick, PEI: Heavy showers, isolated thundershowers and thunderstorms. Torrential rains in the heaviest cells with rates exceeding 25 mm / hour.

 

Nova Scotia Marine: Squalls possible but stability over the region may make it difficult for 35 knot winds to reach the surface. 30 knots as an upper end is a more probable gust.

 

Labrador and Labrador Marine: Nil significant convective weather expected.

 

 

 

Marshall Hawkins

 

Operational Meteorologist – Atlantic Storm Prediction Centre, Meteorological Service of Canada

Environment and Climate Change Canada / Government of Canada

Marshall.Hawkins@canada.ca  / Tel: 902-426-7779

 

Météorologue opérationnel – Centre de prévision des intempéries - région Atlantique, Service météorologique du Canada

Environnement et Changement climatique Canada / Gouvernement du Canada

Marshall.Hawkins@canada.ca / Tél. : 902-426-7779