Convective Outlook Valid for June 19th, 2019

 

Convective Discussion

A strong upper level zonal flow exists today over Atlantic Canada south of an upper low over Labrador. There is very little vorticity advection or thermal advection today. 0-6 km shear is moderate at 30 to 35 knots over NB and NF. There is lack of low level moisture which should keep convection in the non-severe category.

 

Regional Impacts

Maritimes…

Scattered T-shwrs over northern and central NB likely

 

Newfoundland and Labrador…

Risk of non-severe thundershowers over central NF and SW Lab.

 

Steve

 

Convective Outlook Valid for June 18th, 2019

Convective Discussion

An upper low is anchored over Labrador this afternoon. System cloud exists over coastal and western Labrador. In the relative cloud free area in between, daytime heating to 18 degrees will give TCU and a possible CB.

Regional Impacts

Maritimes…

None.

Newfoundland and Labrador…

Risk of non-severe thundershowers over central Labrador this afternoon.

Andy Firth

Convective Outlook Valid for June 17th, 2019

Convective Discussion

Clearing skies are expected today in the wake of a low pressure system exiting Nova Scotia. Dew points will remain in the mid teens this afternoon over areas of Nova Scotia and eastern Prince Edward Island. This combined with some local convergence and afternoon temperatures near 25 could lead to a risk of non-severe thundershowers. Dry bulb temperature of 25 and a dew point temperature of 15 will break the cap and give CAPE values near 200 J/kg.  So the necessary values required to break the cap are also at the maximum of the range of temperatures expected for today. Over Labrador a risk of thundershowers are expected south of the forecast areas.

Regional Impacts

Maritimes…

Risk of non-severe thundershowers over northern and eastern Nova Scotia. Also for eastern Prince Edward Island.

Newfoundland and Labrador…

Risk of non-severe thundershowers over extreme southwestern Labrador.

Andy Firth

Convective Outlook Valid for June 16th, 2019

Convective Discussion

There are two features over Atlantic Canada today/tonight. An approaching low pressure system over central Quebec will give a risk of surface based thundershowers over extreme western Labrador this afternoon/evening. There is currently some relatively cloud free skies ahead of the low which will aid in the convection. The second feature is a warm front which will track just south of western Nova Scotia tonight. A risk of elevated thundershowers are possible over marine areas south of Nova Scotia.

 

Regional Impacts

Maritimes…

None.

 

Newfoundland and Labrador…

A risk of thundershowers over extreme western Labrador this afternoon/evening.

 

 

 

Andy Firth

Lead Meteorologist

Atlantic Storm Prediction Centre, MSC
Environment Canada / Government of Canada

3rd Floor, 45 Alderney Drive

Dartmouth NS B2Y 2N6

andrew.firth@canada.ca / Tel: 902-426-7779 / Fax: 902-426-4873

 

Andy Firth

Premier Météorologue

Le Centre de prévision des intempéries de l'Atlantique, SMC
Environnement Canada / Gouvernement du Canada
3e étage, 45 Alderney Drive

Dartmouth NS B2Y 2N6

andrew.firth@canada.ca / Tél: 902-426-7779 / Télécopieur: 902-426-4873

 

Convective Outlook Valid for June 15th, 2019

Convective Discussion

There are two features over Atlantic Canada today. An approaching low pressure system over central Quebec will give a risk of surface based thundershowers over extreme western Labrador this afternoon. There is currently some relatively cloud free skies well ahead of the low which will aid in the convection. The second feature is an elevated area of warm air (TROWL)  which is moving across western Newfoundland. A very slight risk of thundershowers are possible there. It is such a slight risk that it is not noted in the graphic below.

 

Regional Impacts

Maritimes…

None.

 

Newfoundland and Labrador…

A very slight risk of elevated thundershowers over southwestern Newfoundland this afternoon/evening.

A risk of thundershowers over extreme western Labrador this afternoon.

 

 

 

Andy Firth

Lead Meteorologist

Atlantic Storm Prediction Centre, MSC
Environment Canada / Government of Canada

3rd Floor, 45 Alderney Drive

Dartmouth NS B2Y 2N6

andrew.firth@canada.ca / Tel: 902-426-7779 / Fax: 902-426-4873

 

Andy Firth

Premier Météorologue

Le Centre de prévision des intempéries de l'Atlantique, SMC
Environnement Canada / Gouvernement du Canada
3e étage, 45 Alderney Drive

Dartmouth NS B2Y 2N6

andrew.firth@canada.ca / Tél: 902-426-7779 / Télécopieur: 902-426-4873