Amendment to Convective Outlook for August 30th, 2020

Convective Outlook Valid for Today and Tomorrow

Regional Impacts

 

Isolated thunderstorms with locally heavy downpours and gusty winds.

 

Convective Discussion

 

Thunderstorms can be expected for eastern New Brunswick… PEI… Northern Nova Scotia and into the Gulf of Saint Lawrence. There is some upper support with strong shear, however with low CAPE updrafts should remain weak. However given the favourable dynamics and warm water in the Gulf it is possible that some storms could become organised. Although unlikely strong surface sings could develop in some of these storms.

 

Thunderstorm Outlook for Day 1

 

 

Thunderstorm Outlook for Day 2

 

Convective Outlook Valid for Today and Tomorrow

Regional Impacts

 

Locally heavy downpours possible over southern New Brunswick and Nova Scotia.

 

Convective Discussion

 

In general weak updrafts can be expected today as warm advection aloft will tend to keep the local atmospheric conditions relatively stable. However we will continue to see ample moisture with upwards of 50mm of precipatable water available for southern areas and generally more than 40mm across the Maritimes. Embedded thunderstorms could be sufficient to generate local flash flooding this evening for southwest Nova Scotia and locally heavy downpours elsewhere. The threat of severe weather is minimal today, however conditions for tomorrow could be somewhat more hazardous depending on the remaining moisture and timing of the upper trough that will move over the region.

 

Thunderstorm Outlook for Day 1

 

 

Thunderstorm Outlook for Day 2

 

 

Convective Outlook Valid for Today and Tomorrow

Regional Impacts

A risk of isolated thundershowers over southeastern Labrador today.

A risk of some embedded thundershowers Saturday night across portions of western Nova Scotia.

 

Convective Discussion

A risk of thundershowers over SE LAB today associated with the upper low sitting over the area. SAT PIX does show some partial clearing which would help with some shallow CBs this afternoon. Highly doubt if anything will be observed near the coastal communities. Locally heavy downpours possible in some cells…if they develop.

 

A warm frontal trough will give the risk of embedded thundershowers Saturday night across portions of WRN NS. Heavy downpours would be the only threat.

 

Thunderstorm Outlook for Day 1

 

Thunderstorm Outlook for Day 2

 

Jeremy

Convective Outlook Valid for Today and Tomorrow

Regional Impacts: Thundershowers, rain and possible gusty winds up to 80 km/h are expected later today for the northern Gulf of St. Lawrence and the Northern Peninsula of Newfoundland. Small hail is possible as well.

 

Convective Discussion: Freezing levels are expected to be around 6500 feet and the equilibrium point is expected to be around 20,000 feet. So, low topped CB’s expected near the upper low. The low is vertically stacked from the sfc right up to 250 mb. So, not a lot of dynamics leading to severe weather. Just quite unstable due to cold air aloft and the water still quite warm. Cool air CB’s. In general, the winds are expected to be too strong for waterspouts since gales are expected.

 

Thunderstorm Outlook for Day 1

 

 

Thunderstorm Outlook for Day 2

 

Isolated t-shwrs are expected in Labrador tomorrow as the upper low pulls to the north. Convection is not expected to be severe since the upper low will starting to fill and the instability is no longer over the warm water.