Regional Impacts:
Today
NB/NL: Isolated thunderstorms.
NS/PEI/Labrador: None
Tonight
None
Saturday
None
Convective Discussion:
An upper low pressure system is slowly tracking northeastward over the northern Gulf of St. Lawrence and northern Newfoundland by Saturday morning. Scattered TCUs and isolated CBs were present along the frontal axis extending from the Great northern Peninsula and south over the Grand Banks earlier this morning. Some convection is possible along the northern Newfoundland coasts this afternoon if a cap at 850 mb can be broken. With precipitable water values of 30 to 40 mm, weak to moderate unidirectional wind shear, locally heavy downpours and strong wind gusts are possible. Isolated convection is also possible along the cold front which is tracking through the Grand Banks.
There is the possibility of isolated thunderstorms over New Brunswick today, however a capping inversion at 700mb with be the main inhibitor along with current cloud cover. KCARs 12Z sounding indicates that the RDPS is slightly overdoing this cap and with sufficient surface based heating, this cap may be able to break by this afternoon. Any showers that do develop will be slow to move given little upper flow around the upper low and with precipitable water near 30 mm, some locally heavy downpours are possible. Given more dry air in the mid level, some strong wind gusts are also possible.
For Saturday, a ridge of high pressure moves into the region, keeping most areas hot and dry. Some isolated TCUs are likely for Newfoundland as they remain under the influence of a trough and western Labrador as a low pressure system approaches central Quebec.
Thunderstorm outlook for today:
Thunderstorm outlook for tonight:
Thunderstorm outlook for Friday:
