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Thursday, June 27, 2019

Convective Outlook Valid for June 28th, 2019 Day 2 Outlook


Convective Discussion for Friday, June 28, Day 2 Outlook
The upper trough that is digging over Quebec will move eastward tonight and will over the Maritimes on Friday. Mid level temperatures on Friday will drop a few degrees and more insolation is expected. In addition, an upper level jet over southern Ontario will move eastward over the western Maritimes on Friday. Heavy downpours of rain, small hail and wind gusts are possible

Regional Impacts
Maritimes…
New Brunswick, western Nova Scotia.

Newfoundland and Labrador…
None expected.



Stephen Hatt
Forecaster
ASPC

Convective Outlook Valid for June 27th, 2019


Convective Discussion
Conditions are generally unfavourable for convection over Atlanta Canada today. However, there is lots of instability and dynamics over the St. Lawrence River this morning that will slowly advect eastward. Over this region, there is a moist tongue of dew points in excess of 16 deg and warm temperatures of 20 deg or higher. There is an east-west 250 jet over southern Ontario and a north-south 250 jet extending from western Maine into eastern Quebec. There is also a digging 500 mb trough with diffluence ahead of it. There is a possibility that some cells with high precipitable water could creep into extreme northwestern New Brunswick later today giving heavy downpours.

Regional Impacts


Maritimes…
Western New Brunswick.

Newfoundland and Labrador…
Slight risk western Labrador.






Stephen Hatt

Forecaster

ASPC

Wednesday, June 26, 2019

Convective Outlook Valid for June 26, 2019


Convective discussion
Basically there is a risk of non-severe thundershowers for the western Maritimes. Currently there is a nearly stationary low near James Bay with a frontal trough extending from it southeast over Maine. This trough is nearly stationary with little dynamic upper support. There is also very little moisture west of the main feature. There is some weak detstabilisation in the mid levels, with a 500 mb thermal trough well east of the 700 mb trough thisch continues down to 850 mb. There is also some moisture near and below 850, with a moist tongue over northern Maine extending toward  Northwest New Brunswick, and mid level clouds are moving away to the east. If and when the stratus breaks up there may be enough heating to produce some thundershowers.

In the Gulf of Maine a nearly stationary broad weak low is triggering some  embedded which  moving towards southwestern  Nova Scotia. There cellc should not go much east of the tri-county area.

For Thursday, indications are for a slow progression into Labrador and across the western Maritimes.

Regional Impacts

Nova Scotia: Slight risk for this afternoon into this evening and overnight for non-severe thundershowers.
New Brunswick: Slight risk for evening and overnight for non-severe thundershowers.

Newfoundland, Labrador, and Prince Edward Island: None for today and tonight. Overnight into early Thursday morning there is a slight risk for western Labrador.



Doug Mercer

Tuesday, June 25, 2019

Convective Outlook Valid for June 25th, 2019

Convective Discussion
A quasi-stationary low pressure system just off the coast of Labrador will continue to weaken today. Clouds and scattered showers will persist over Newfoundland/Labrador. Very low dew points in the wake of this system will continue to suppress any possible convection.

Regional Impacts
Maritimes…
None.

Newfoundland and Labrador…
None.



Andy Firth

Monday, June 24, 2019

Convective Outlook Valid for June 24th, 2019

Convective Discussion
A quasi-stationary low pressure system just off the coast of Labrador will gradually weaken over the next two days. Clouds and showers are expected over Newfoundland/Labrador. Very low dew points in the wake of this system will suppress any possible convection.

Regional Impacts
Maritimes…
None.

Newfoundland and Labrador…
None.



Andy Firth