Convective discussion:
Convective activity will be generally low in Atlantic Canada today due to lack of sunshine throughout much of the Maritimes and Newfoundland. However, isolated t-shwrs are likely in NS where sunshine and high dew points initiate convection. Although Cape Breton is not in the minor threat area on the map, any t-shwr activity in Antigonish County could move into Inverness County.
Unlike yesterday, Labrador shouldn’t see any significant convection due the passage of a cold front followed by a ridge of high pressure.
Technical Discussion:
If convection occurs in the Maritimes and Newfoundland, CAPE will be low due to warm air aloft. Shear is low in NS so t-shwrs that occur would be non-severe. Shear is moderate in NB, PE, and NF so longevity and separation of updrafts and downdrafts could occur if t-shwrs formed.
T-shwr activity is unlikely in NB, PE, and NF due to cloud and showers and lack of a trigger other than sunshine which generally is not expected or not expected to persist. Sunshine could be a trigger in NS.
Regional Impacts:
New Brunswick: very unlikely
Nova Scotia: Isolated non-severe thundershowers likely Valley and northern mainland.
Newfoundland: Unlikely.
Labrador: Very unlikely
