Convective Discussion
Thunderstorms expected over eastern New Brunswick and parts of eastern Nova Scotia as well as western Labrador today.
The thunderstorms over the Maritimes will be primarily thermodynamically driven. Lots of solar insolation today combined with good low level moisture will generate moderate CAPE values of around 500 J/kg however the lack of a triggering mechanism should restrain convective development to coastal areas where it will be influenced by a sea breeze and coastal convergence which should act as the kicker. If thunderstorms develop along the coast, they will likely be slow moving so heavy local downpours will be the main threat. Looking at satellite this morning, there seems to be a lot of forest fire smoke in the upper atmosphere. This could impede convection as it will reduce solar insolation.
For western Labrador, good low level moisture and solar insolation combined with cool temperatures aloft will bring CAPE values of around 500 J/kg. There is a small possibility of severe thunderstorms being initiated; however, wind shear is quite insignificant, therefore thunderstorms cell will have difficulty maintaining themselves.
Regional Impacts
New Brunswick
Slow moving thunderstorms along the coast which could bring local heavy downpours. Small hail and moderate winds also possible.
Nova Scotia
Slow moving thunderstorms which could bring local heavy downpours. Small hail and moderate winds also possible.
PEI
None
Newfoundland & Labrador
For western Labrador, local heavy downpours and moderate winds with a small chance of cells producing damaging winds. No impacts elsewhere.
Barrie MacKinnon