Regional Impacts
Isolated non-severe thunderstorms over New Brunswick and Southern Labrador. Stronger storms will likely occur over Maine, and could move close to western New Brunswick.
Convective Discussion
There are a couple of upper features this morning supporting convective development throughout the day. An upper low just west of Labrador with its associated cold pool will maintain unstable conditions over areas from Wabush to Churchill Falls and Goose Bay. Spotty lightning has been detected throughout the morning especially in the area between Wabush and Sept-Isle, and also between Smallwood reservoir and Goose Bay. MLCAPE in the order of 300 to 500 J/kg will support development of individual cells capable to produce brief downpours - small hail - and gusts of around 60 km/h.
A thermal trough extends southward from the cold pool to Maine and then to Long Island. Two jet branches will intersect with the trough, one of those is oriented west to east along the lower Quebec North Shore, and the second branch is pushing southward over the St. Lawrence Valley moving into Maine where the most unstable upper air profiles were found this morning. Gray, Maine shows MLCAPE values of around 1000 J/kg and lifted index of -2 to -4. This is an area were multi- cell development is likely during the afternoon due to the incoming northwesterly jet intersecting with the trough, providing extra support to these storms sustained by deep-layer shear values of about 30 knots. While the bulkier action will remain west of New Brunswick, weaker non-severe storms will likely develop over the province.
Thunderstorm Outlook for Day 1
Thunderstorm Outlook for Day 2
