Convective Outlook Valid for Today and Tomorrow

Regional Impacts

NB: Isolated non-severe thunderstorms possible over the northern half of NB this afternoon, rainfall up to 10 mm.

NS & PEI: A few embedded thunderstorms with locally heavy downpours of 15 mm,  possibly up to 30 mm over eastern NS.

NL: Isolated thunderstorms over southeastern Labrador, and Northern peninsula, and possibly over central portions of the island,  rainfall up to 10 mm.

 

Convective Discussion…

Warm and humid air mass prevails throughout the region, with the exception of Labrador where dewpoint temperatures are less than 15. The main area of interest today is along a 30kt southwesterly LLJ which is pumping moisture into an axis running from south of Halifax through eastern regions of mainland NS, and then to the northeastward to the Northern peninsula of NF. A deep instability layer above 850mb with tops extending to 9-10 km is analysed on the Shearwater sounding, generally MUCAPE values range from 500-1000J/kg. The LLJ and the presence of areas of vertical velocities at 700mb will likely enhance rainfall processes over the previously mentioned area today. A 75kt southwesterly upper jet also will also support some of the convective cells that forms. Over southern NB and western-most regions of NS, warming is expected in the mid-levels today which will prevent low level instability from extending vertically.

 

Thunderstorm Outlook for Today

 

Thunderstorm Outlook for Tonight

 

Thunderstorm Outlook for Tomorrow

 

Convective Outlook Valid for Today, Tonight, and Tomorrow

Regional Impacts

NB: Organized thunderstorms possible over NW NB this afternoon, 0 to 1 cm hail and locally heavy rain of 20 to 40 mm possible.

NS & PEI: Isolated thundershowers with locally heavy downpours of 10 to 15 mm.

NL: Slight chance for an embedded thundershower over southern Labrador, locally heavy downpours are the main risk.

 

Convective Discussion…

The main area of interest today is along the NB/Maine border. A shortwave currently over western Maine will slowly push east, which will provide ample lift for convective activity this afternoon. A 100 kt southerly 250mb jet sitting over western NB will aid in the development of organized thunderstorms, pending the clearing of low level cloud over northwestern NB. Models have been under-forecasting cloud cover here, and if things do not clear out this afternoon, thunderstorm activity will be limited. If cloud does begin to clear this afternoon, surface based CAPE values may exceed 1000 J/kg; this in combination with 20-30 kts of 0-6 km shear will support the development of organized thunderstorms. The main threats would be 0 to 1 cm hail, locally heavy downpours of 20 to 40 mm, and convective gusts up to 70 km/h. The risk here will be entirely dependant on whether or not the low level cloud clears out enough to allow surface temperatures to rise into the low to mid twenties, allowing for surface based convection to initiate.

 

A few lightning strikes are also possible over parts of NS and PEI today, as a 55 kt 500mb jet sits over the region. This will allow for some isolated embedded convection, with locally heavy downpours being the main threat. This risk will remain overnight before the jet begins to push east tomorrow morning.

 

Thunderstorm Outlook for Today

 

Thunderstorm Outlook for Tonight

 

Thunderstorm Outlook for Tomorrow

Copp

Convective Outlook Valid for Today, Tonight, and Tomorrow

Regional Impacts

NS and NB: Embedded thundershowers today with locally heavy rain, 20 to 40 mm along Atlantic shores of NS and south-central NB.

NL: Isolated embedded thundershowers possible over central Labrador this afternoon, local rainfall amounts 15 to 25 mm.

PEI: Isolated thundershowers possible this afternoon, locally heavy rain of 10 to 15 mm.

 

Convective Discussion…

As an area of high pressure sits east of Newfoundland, a quasi-stationary trough extends from the US east coast through the St. Lawrence river valley, and into northern Labrador. This pattern in combination with a 40 kt low level jet is supplying ample moisture over the next few days across Atlantic Canada. MUCAPE values of 500 to 750 J/kg and 40 kts of 0-6 km shear will allow for some sustained embedded convection today along Atlantic shores of NS, as well as in south-central NB. The main threat with these storms will be locally heavy rainfall, with 20 to 40 mm possible in areas of convection. This threat will persist overnight along the south shore of NS.

 

A weak shortwave will move into southern Labrador this afternoon, providing ample lift for some organized convection between Labrador City and Goose Bay with 40 kts of 0-6 km shear. The main threat with these thundershowers will be locally heavy rain, with 15 to 25 mm possible.

 

Tomorrow, a shortwave will approach northern NB from the west. This, in combination with 20-30 kts of 0-6 km shear and surface-based CAPE values of 1000-1250 J/kg will allow for a line of organized convection to form over northern Maine. Main threats with these thunderstorms will be 0 to 1 cm hail, and locally heavy rain of 20 to 40 mm. There is still some model disagreement on the speed at which this shortwave will approach NB, so the risk area may need to be extended to the southeast as models gain a better handle on the system.

 

Thunderstorm Outlook for Today

 

Thunderstorm Outlook for Tonight

 

Thunderstorm Outlook for Tomorrow

 

Copp

Convective Outlook Valid for Today and Tomorrow

Regional Impacts

NB and NS: Risk of an embedded thunderstorm, bands of heavier showers giving 10 to 20 mm today

Lab: occasional rain spreading over western Lab, amounts less than 10mm today

Rest of NF and PEI: none

 

Convective Discussion

Surface low over south-central Ontario with inverted trough extending towards northern Quebec. Surface warm front extends from the Low to southern Quebec-southern Maine-South shore of NS. A high pressure area now sits east of NF. The biggest change in the past 24 hours is the northward and eastward propagation of the increasingly moist air mass that has been sitting over the Maritimes. A strong southerly low-level-jet 30kt will maintain the supply of moisture with calculated precip. water from the upper air soundings indicating values in the 35-45 mm range.. this trend is expected to spread into NF&Lab today and tonight. The cloud deck mostly consists of overcast layers from near or at the surface extending up above 9-10km. While the extensive cloud cover will make it difficult to get enough surface heating to initiate convection, in their current state, soundings from YQI and YAW show plenty of instability (MUCAPE of 300 or 400 J/Kg) for embedded CB’s with tops up to 7-9 km. Deep layer shear values are a solid 35kt which might help sustain the convection over the Gulf of Maine until the clusters reaches the Fundy region later today. A few public forecast regions have been identified with the greatest potential for high rainfall rates/amounts during the next 48H, some of the forecast guidance is indicating amounts as high as ~100 mm.. but an average of the main deterministic models indicates a medium probability of 40 to 60. Regardless of the numbers, the maximum amounts will be driven by convective bands and it would be fairly difficult to identify which location/county will receive the most.

 

 

 

Thunderstorm Outlook for Today

 

 

Thunderstorm Outlook for Tonight

 

 

Thunderstorm Outlook for Wednesday

 

Convective Outlook Valid for Today and Tomorrow

Regional Impacts

 

NB and NS: Risk of an embedded thunderstorm.

NL: None.

 

Convective Discussion

A warm front extends from a surface/upper low over the Great Lakes to the Gulf of Maine-Lurcher-Lahave Bank. The front will push northward slightly tonight and Tuesday. Few clusters of thunderstorms are detected by CLDN along the front. The instability over the Maritimes will remain quite weak and therefore the risk of thunderstorms over the area depicted is minimal 30% or less. Rainfall rates over the region are not expected exceed 5mm, however closer to the front (Maine) the rates will likely be in the 10-20mm range.

Strong high pressure over the Lower Quebec north shore will dominate with some moist early morning boundary layer conditions over NF giving way to sunshine. The LG4 and Goose upper air soundings from this morning continue to show extremely dry conditions.

 

 

Thunderstorm Outlook for today

 

 

Thunderstorm Outlook for tonight

 

Thunderstorm Outlook for tonight

Convective Outlook Valid for Today and Tomorrow

Regional Impacts

 

NB: Isolated thunderstorms possible this afternoon and evening.

NL: Isolated embedded thundershowers possible today.

 

Convective Discussion

 

Not a whole lot of forcing to talk about today. There has been an isolated embedded lightning strike or 2 across central NL associated with the weak short wave trough crossing the region this morning. So there could be another flash or 2 but that’s about it. Oddly enough there was organized convection late last night and early this morning up over the Great Northern Peninsula and near the Blanc-Sablon area that was not expected with the workup yesterday…and quite frankly I am still a little miffed on why it happened. That area of activity has since died off.

 

There is a slight destabilization of the atmosphere today across NB so, as skies clear there should be some isolated CBs develop. The 12Z tephi from YZV supports this notion, and that air mass will be descending southward. However, there remains a lot of smoke aloft so it’s quite difficult to figure out just how that will impact the convection. In any event there is no severe weather expected at today…just some locally heavy downpours and perhaps small hail since FZLVLs will be on the low side.

 

NS should see some TCU and associated heavy downpours this afternoon. The 12Z soundings out of YQI and YAW really don’t support CBs…but an isolated flash or 2 is not out of the question.

 

Lastly, towards the end of D2, there could be some isolated cells south of NS that could move over the western mainland but that is solely based on computer guidance and is not to be trusted for the time being.

 

Thunderstorm Outlook for today

 

Thunderstorm Outlook for Monday

 

Jeremy

Convective Outlook Valid for Today and Tomorrow

Regional Impacts

 

Southern LAB: Scattered to frequent thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening giving strong wind gusts, small hail and heavy downpours.

Southern NB: Scattered thunderstorms possible later today, tonight and early Sunday morning giving heavy downpours. Isolated thunderstorms possible again Sunday afternoon/evening.

PEI: Scattered thunderstorms possible overnight tonight or early Sunday morning giving heavy downpours.

SWRN NL: Isolated thunderstorms possible Sunday morning giving heavy downpours.

NS: A very slight chance of a thunderstorm this afternoon/evening for some central locales giving heavy downpours.

 

Convective Discussion

 

The interesting area to watch today will be up in the Big Land, where a frontal trough (acting as the trigger) will give way to scattered to frequent thunderstorms this afternoon. Moisture is nothing to write home about, however the shear and instability is good. 12Z YYR sounding shows about 50 knots of westerly shear, as well as some fairly steep lapse rates in the mid-levels. That could lead to good vertical velocities and support small hail growth. Strong wind gusts of 70-80 km/h are possible. Pretty much all the activity will be confined to areas where there are no public forecasts. However, there is a possibility of a strong storm or 2 advecting towards southeastern communities later this afternoon and into this evening. The only caveat would be the enormous amount of smoke evident on visible SAT imagery. The current ongoing thunderstorm activity in the southeast will soon diminish.

 

A pre-frontal trough/short wave over the New England states will move into southwestern NB later today crossing the MRTMS tonight before weakening over southwestern NL Sunday morning. Although there is not much history of lightning, there are indications of development as the sun sets this evening leading to a nocturnal event for some areas. Locally heavy downpours are the threat if they form.

 

Lastly  a slight chance of an afternoon/evening thunderstorm Sunday for a portion of southwestern NB. Again, heavy downpours seems to be the main threat at the moment.

 

Thunderstorm Outlook for today

 

Thunderstorm Outlook for tonight/Sunday morning

 

Thunderstorm Outlook for Sunday

 

Jeremy

Convective Outlook Valid for Today, Tonight and Tomorrow

Regional Impacts

 

Today: Newfoundland and Labrador- Non-severe thunderstorms possible in southern Labrador and central-eastern Newfoundland giving rainfall rates of 10-20mm/h, strong wind gusts and lightning.

               

Tonight: Labrador- Non-severe thunderstorms for central/southern Labrador

 

Saturday: Labrador: Near-severe thunderstorms possible in Labrador giving rainfall rates of 20mm/h, strong wind gusts and lightning.

                New Brunswick: Near-severe thunderstorms possible with rainfall rates of 20mm/h and lightning Saturday evening.

                Nova Scotia: Near-severe thunderstorms possible with rainfall rates of 20mm/h and lightning Saturday evening.

 

 

Convective Discussion

 

A frontal boundary extending eastward over central Quebec into central Labrador and southeastward into northern Newfoundland is slowly sinking southwards today while a stationary ridge of high pressure over New England and the Maritimes slowly weakens. Upper dynamics are somewhat favourable over Labrador today to sustain elevated thunderstorms that develop along the boundary but with little thermodynamics changes, CAPE values of 200-500 J/kg, the main threat will be locally heavy downpours. Over Newfoundland, although there is quite a bit of smoke over the region from wildfires over Quebec, an 850 mb jet and sufficient shear may aid in thunderstorm development on a line from Gander to Terra Nova. A trough of low pressure south of Nova Scotia is also slowly moving eastward. Some embedded thunderstorms are expected for the southern slope waters.

 

For Saturday, the trough of low pressure will track southeastward over central Labrador with a cold front extending across northern Quebec. With high precipitable water rates, increasing CAPE values exceeding 1000 J/kg and moderate shear, the threat for near-severe thunderstorms increases with more organized squall lines or bow echos. Instability and moisture will also increase over the Maritimes as an upper low slowly moves into the region from New England. Precipitable water values of 40-50 mm and CAPE values exceeding 500 J/kg may lead to increased threat for thunderstorms, but the dynamics are not as favourable, so pulse type storms are more likely at this time with locally heavy downpours in the evening.

 

Thunderstorm Outlook for Day 1

 

 

Thunderstorm Outlook for Day 1 Night

 

 

Thunderstorm Outlook for Day 2

 

Convective Outlook Valid for Today and Tomorrow

Regional Impacts

 

Today: for Labrador, isolated non-severe thunderstorms giving brief downpours with rainfall rates of 10-15mm/h.

 

Tonight: non-severe isolated thunderstorms in Labrador dissipating.

 

Thursday: for Labrador, isolated non-severe thunderstorms activity shifting to southernmost areas. Brief downpours with rainfall rates of 10-15mm/h. For Newfoundland, there is a slight risk of a thunderstorm west of a line from Gander to Terra Nova.

 

Convective Discussion: A strong upper ridge over eastern Canada will provide dry conditions for most of the region, with increasingly warmer temperatures and stable conditions.  A surface front over far northern Quebec stretches southeastward over central Labrador and is the focus for deeper instability today with localised thunderstorms and rainfall in excess of 10 mm. This activity will shift southward Friday reaching areas over higher terrain between the Churchill river valley and the lower Quebec north shore. Forecast guidance is suggesting an area of convergence west of Terra Nova park Friday afternoon with a few TCU potentially evolving into CB’s at the peak of insolation. Elsewhere no thunderstorms are expected.

 

Thunderstorm Outlook for today:

 

 

Thunderstorm Outlook for Friday:

 

Convective Outlook Valid for Today and Tomorrow

Regional Impacts

 

Today: none.

 

Tonight: none.

 

Wednesday: none.

 

Convective Discussion:

A surface trough over western NB will enable the development of showers today, however vertical growth will be limited by a capping inversion at 750 mb and prevent lightning. Outside of this region a building surface ridge will prevent convective development

for the next couple of days across Atlantic Canada. On the ridge’s northern periphery in central Labrador tomorrow some instability will be present (MLCAPES 150-200 J/KG), but high bulk shears will shunt convective growth preventing storms.

 

 

Thunderstorm Outlook for today

 

Thunderstorm outlook for Wednesday

 

 

Allen

 

Convective Outlook Valid for Today and Tomorrow

Regional Impacts

Local rainfall amounts of 20 mm for central sections of NF today.

 

Convective Discussion

 

This morning the low at 500mb/surface are located over Cabot strait and continue to move eastward passing east of the Avalon tonight. Ahead of these features, several curving bands of rain are detected by NF radar. Satellite shows colder cloud tops along the south coast and over central regions, but the Stephenville sounding shows that the instability is limiting vertical development to embedded ACC which could still give higher rainfall rates periodically during the day. There has not been any lightning activity detected by CLDN or GLM over the region since last night and none is anticipated for the rest of the day. The low feature will exit NF after midnight.

 

For Tuesday, the RDPS is indicating an area of potential instability west of Nain, but this activity will likely be limited to the 850-700mb level due to a mid-level inversion.. Otherwise dry conditions are expected Tuesday and Wednesday as an upper ridge builds over Atlantic Canada.  

 

*Note that National Monitoring has an open ticket on the lightning sensor at Wabush Lake. They are unable to access the equipment since yesterday (June 18)

 

Thunderstorm Outlook for Today

 

Convective Outlook Valid for Today and Tomorrow

Regional Impacts

Locally heavy downpours giving 15-25 mm for areas affected by thunderstorms.

 

Convective Discussion

 

After a bout of intense lightning activity overnight things are expected to be somewhat less intense today. Some thunderstorms will continue over Nova Scotia and possibly into southern New Brunswick and PEI later in the day. Updraft potential is not expected to be very high however some favourable dynamics are like to organise the convection into multicell clusters, with some upper support before the upper jet exits the region later today. Locally 15-25mm is expected, slightly less than the rainfall rates than the ~25mm/hr that we saw overnight. Some small hail is possible with the lowering freezing levels but it should well below warning level.

 

Thunderstorm Outlook for Day 1

 

Thunderstorm Outlook for Day 2

 

Mel Lemmon

Convective Outlook Valid for Today and Tomorrow

Regional Impacts

 

Nova Scotia and Southeastern New Brunswick… Locally heavier embedded rainfall, frequent lightning possible tonight.

 

Convective Discussion

 

A vertically stacked low pressure system will gradually make its way across Nova Scotia over the next couple of days, bringing unstable air along with it.  Aloft a weak cyclonic jet ahead of the upper low could be a contributing factor to support some vertical motion over the next couple of days but otherwise the thermodynamics are not overly favourable for development of severe thunderstorms. There will be very little surface based CAPE with this system with thunderstorm imitating above 850 mb for most of the period. Most unstable CAPE in general will remain below 500 J/kg, with low to moderate deep shear. Precipitable water values will be in the 30-40mm, this coupled with potential updrafts could lead to locally heavier rainfall rates approaching 25mm/hr.

 

Thunderstorm Outlook for Day 1

 

 

Thunderstorm Outlook for Day 2

 

 

Mel Lemmon

Convective Outlook Valid for Today and Tomorrow

Regional Impacts

 

Maritimes: Scattered thunderstorms today, with some discrete cells possibly reaching severe limits for moderate hail, and rain. (Funnel clouds are possible).

NL: Embedded thundershowers within a greater area of showers/rain.

 

Convective Discussion

 

Dynamics at play over Newfoundland today include a trough line generating instability over the island. Precip is likely to be in the rates of 5-10mm, and these cells are moving quite quickly to the north. Winds gusts locally may reach near 60 to 70 km/h. Both CAPE and Shear are much more favourable for thunderstorm development over portions of the Maritimes. In SW NS, ML CAPE of 500-800 is present, and convective trigger temps will easily be surpassed with the cloud holes that are developing this morning. In central and SE NB, MLCAPE is 760-1000 J/kg, with Effective Shear of 25-30kts in the lower levels. Lapse rates of -6 were analyzed this morning, as the upper low feature continues to destabilize this air mass. SFC dew points of 12-16 are observed as the morning fog burns off. This upper trof is very important to watch as it sweeps through the AOR this afternoon. Helicity values (similar to those near Hants county yesterday) will be present near Moncton and Shediac late this afternoon. As such, there is a *non-zero chance of a funnel cloud or non-supercell tornado* in this area. However – the chance is very low, and it is not included on the graphical depiction because of the low likelihood and low severity. Watches will be used to alert the public if required. Another advancing trough will bring a line of convection up from the south Saturday evening, over the marine areas and affecting NS’s south and Acadian shores.

 

Thunderstorm Outlook for TODAY

 

Thunderstorm Outlook for TONIGHT

 

 

Thunderstorm Outlook for SATURDAY

 

 

Forecaster: J. TIRONE/ASPC

Convective Outlook Valid for Today and Tomorrow

Regional Impacts

NB, NS, and PEI: Scattered thunderstorms today and tomorrow, some of the stronger storms could produce heavy downpours 10 to 20 mm, and possibly higher.

NL: None, deeper instability limited to the west of a line from Fermont/Lab City to Lake Eon to Chevery.

 

Convective Discussion…

A surface and upper low over Maine will move east today, reaching the Gulf of St. Lawrence tonight. The upper low will then weaken and open up over Labrador. Moisture associated with these features will continue to produce widespread showers with embedded thundershowers with forecast guidance suggesting CAPE of 250 J/kg or less, however as the day progresses, insolation from breaks in the cloud cover and the cold temperatures aloft will increase the depth of the instability with surface-based CAPE values expected to reach 500 J/kg. Under these conditions this deeper convection will produce locally heavier showers 10-20 mm, some small hail < 1cm, and wind gusts to around 60 km/h. Generally the shear is weak, except over NS where current soundings indicate 0-6km values above 20 kt which might produce weakly organised convective cells.

 

A series of weak low pressure systems will extend from NY state to Atlantic Canada on Friday. Low level moisture/fog will give way to isolated thunderstorms during the day.

 

 

Thunderstorm Outlook for Today

 

Thunderstorm Outlook for Tonight

 

 

Thunderstorm Outlook for Friday

 

 

Convective Outlook Valid for Today, Tonight, and Tomorrow

Regional Impacts

NB, NS, and PEI: Scattered thunderstorms today and tomorrow, with locally heavy downpours up to 25 mm, possibly higher.

NL: Isolated thundershowers possible over western Labrador, locally heavy downpours up to 15 mm.

 

Convective Discussion…

An upper trough is moving through the Maritimes today, bringing the risk for some elevated convection. 0 to 6 km wind shear of 30 to 40 kts, in combination with the aforementioned trough are providing ample lift and instability today for some organized convection. Thunderstorms are expected to stay elevated, as a thermal ridge at 850 mb should prevent anything from becoming surface based, however heavy downpours up to 25 mm and potentially higher are possible. An upper low will then approach the Maritimes from the west tonight, bringing the risk for some elevated convection for parts of western New Brunswick and southwestern Nova Scotia into tomorrow morning. This upper low will continue to slowly move east tomorrow afternoon, bringing upper and mid level cooling across the Maritimes. This will allow for convection to be more surface based, with locally heavy downpours of up to 25 mm the main risk.

 

Some isolated thundershowers are possible in parts of western and central Labrador today with an upper low moving through northern Quebec. Locally heavy downpours of up to 15 mm are possible with these thundershowers.

 

Thunderstorm Outlook for Today

 

Thunderstorm Outlook for Tonight

 

Thunderstorm Outlook for Tomorrow

 

Copp

Convective Outlook Valid for Today and Tomorrow

Regional Impacts

NB: Scattered thunderstorms tonight and Wednesday, with locally heavy downpours possible, 15-30 mm.

NS: Scattered thunderstorms tonight and Wednesday, with locally heavy downpours possible, 15-30 mm.

PEI: Scattered thunderstorms on Wednesday afternoon, with locally heavy downpours possible, 15-30 mm.

NL: Isolated thundershowers possible over central Labrador on Wednesday afternoon.

 

Convective Discussion…

As a ridge of high pressure continues to dominate Atlantic Canada today, an approaching trough from the west will provide ample instability and wind shear for some elevated convection overnight tonight over the southwestern Maritimes. This trough will continue to push east on Wednesday, spreading the risk for elevated convection across most of the Maritime provinces. A thermal ridge at 850 mb will prevent any convection from becoming surface based, as such the main risk for these storms will be locally heavy rainfall, with 15-30 mm possible.

 

For Labrador, some isolated thundershowers are possible on Wednesday afternoon as a shortwave currently over Hudson’s Bay slowly approaches from the west. Locally heavy rainfall near 15 mm is possible with these thundershowers.

 

Thunderstorm Outlook for Today

 

 

Thunderstorm Outlook for Tonight

 

 

Thunderstorm Outlook for Wednesday

 

 

Copp

Convective Outlook Valid for Today and Tomorrow

Regional Impacts

 

Central/Eastern NB, Western PEI, and Western NS: Isolated thundershowers, with locally heavy downpours of 10-15 mm possible.

NL: None.

 

Convective Discussion: A ridge of high pressure dominates the Maritimes today and tomorrow. Mixed layer CAPE values of 250 to 500 J/kg in central and eastern NB, extending into western NS, will aid in developing some weak thundershowers along terrain, with locally heavy downpours the main risk. Storms are not expected to be long lived due to a lack of wind shear and upper level support.

 

Thunderstorm Outlook for Day 1

 

 

Thunderstorm Outlook for Day 2

 

 

-Copp

Convective Outlook Valid for Today and Tomorrow

Regional Impacts

Western Labrador… low likelihood of isolated thundershower. Locally heavier downpours possible 10-15mm.

 

Convective Discussion… For the most part today will be relatively quiet with a few isolated thunderstorms developing over western Labrador. The dynamics are not particularly favourable with very little wind shear, and no upper support for long lived thunderstorms. Activity will likely be driven by daytime heating and terrain, with mixed layer CAPE is likely less than 500 J/kg. It is possible that there will be some locally heavier rain and small hail. No Severe weather is expected.

 

 

Thunderstorm Outlook for Day 1

 

 

Thunderstorm Outlook for Day 2

 

 

Lemmon

Convective Outlook Valid for Today and Tomorrow

Today:

NL: isolated non-severe east of NFLD.

NS: small possibility of isolated non-severe thunderstorms over some areas of NS.  Local downpours possible giving up to 10mm.

NB: Isolated non-severe thunderstorms possible over western NB. Local downpours possible giving up to 10 mm. 

PEI: none

 

Tonight:

None.

 

Saturday:

None.

 

 

Convective Discussion

 

Possibility of non-severe thunderstorms over parts of the Maritimes today.  We continue to sit under a cold pool and there is significant cloud cover over the area with highs only reaching 15 to 17C.  The risk will be for areas where clouds clear up a bit this afternoon.  These areas could realize 300 to 400 J/kg which could be enough for small non severe thunderstorms to form.  With energy values so low and no wind shear to speak of, these storms will likely be short lived.  If any cells do form, they will be slow moving so local downpours are possible giving up to 10 mm.   

 

Thunderstorm Outlook for Today

 

 

Thunderstorm Outlook for Tonight

 

 

Thunderstorm Outlook for Sunday