Regional Impacts
Nova Scotia and Southeastern New Brunswick… Locally heavier embedded rainfall, frequent lightning possible tonight.
Convective Discussion
A vertically stacked low pressure system will gradually make its way across Nova Scotia over the next couple of days, bringing unstable air along with it. Aloft a weak cyclonic jet ahead of the upper low could be a contributing factor to support some vertical motion over the next couple of days but otherwise the thermodynamics are not overly favourable for development of severe thunderstorms. There will be very little surface based CAPE with this system with thunderstorm imitating above 850 mb for most of the period. Most unstable CAPE in general will remain below 500 J/kg, with low to moderate deep shear. Precipitable water values will be in the 30-40mm, this coupled with potential updrafts could lead to locally heavier rainfall rates approaching 25mm/hr.
Thunderstorm Outlook for Day 1
Thunderstorm Outlook for Day 2
Mel Lemmon