Regional Impacts
NS: None.
NB: A few thunderstorms possible over western and northern NB this afternoon; 1-2 cm hail, 70-90 km/h wind gusts, and locally heavy downpours of 25-50 mm.
PEI: Slight chance for an isolated thundershower over western PEI this evening, locally heavy downpours of 15 mm possible.
NL: A few thunderstorms possible between Goose Bay and Labrador City this afternoon; 1 cm hail, 70 km/h wind gusts, and locally heavy downpours of 20-40 mm.
Convective Discussion…
A small shortwave moving through eastern Quebec this morning will bring the risk for severe weather across parts of northwestern NB and central Labrador today. In NB, SBCAPE values are expected to climb upwards of 1500 J/kg this afternoon. This, in combination with bulk shear values of 30-40 kts will provide an ample environment for the development of severe weather. Dew points in parts of New Brunswick have been observed to be slightly higher than models have forecast this morning, as such SBCAPE values may be slightly higher than models are currently predicting. The main threat with these cells will be small hail of 1-2 cm, strong wind gusts of 70-90 km/h, and locally heavy downpours upwards of 25 mm per hour.
In central Labrador, SBCAPE values will be similar to those in NW NB, 1500-2000 J/kg between Labrador City and Goose Bay. Bulk shear here is slightly weaker however, in the 20-30 kt range, nonetheless a 40 kt 500 mb jet over the region will aid in sustaining organized convection this afternoon and into this evening. There is a chance these storms make it to Goose Bay by late this evening, however the main threat area is to the west of here. The hazards associated with these storms will be 1 cm hail, 70 km/h wind gusts, and locally heavy downpours of 20-40 mm.
Thunderstorm Outlook for Today
Thunderstorm Outlook for Tonight
Thunderstorm Outlook for Tomorrow
Copp