Day 1 Convective Outlook for Atlantic Canada Valid for August 2nd, 2018

 

Convective Discussion

Two different convective initiation scenarios are envisioned today. North of the Maritimes, thunderstorms will form in an area of surface convergence ahead of  a cold front analyzed from western Quebec to the Saguenay to Baie-Comeau. Based on the 12utc soundings from Sept-Isles and Maniwaki, the most energy available in this area is roughly 800-1200 J/kg which should be enough to push cumulonimbus development up to about 30,000 feet. The upper support points to multiple cells, and supercells are not out of the question given the available moisture and wind profile.

 

Over New Brunswick and Maine, a moisture-rich airmass with dew point temperatures in excess of 20 will probably generate isolated thunderstorms. Very warm surface temperatures will be required to over-come the low level stability, however, with a temperature of 31 and a dewpoint temperature of 22 the available energy spikes to 1,000 J/kg and pure convection develops leading to cumulonimbus with top near 40,000ft erupt. The storms are more likely to be widespread and stronger west of the region (i.e. over Maine)  

 

Over Newfoundland, the airmass is becoming increasingly more humid over Newfoundland with dewpoint temperatures now reaching 17 or 18 in the southwest. A 30knot low level jet will push this moisture to other areas of the island during the afternoon however due energy available development will be limited to TCU and ACC clouds. Further north over Labrador, a low pressure system will maintain a vast area of cloud and rain.

 

Regional Impacts

 

Nova Scotia, PEI, Newfoundland and Labrador : No impacts expected

 

New Brunswick : Risk of isolated thunderstorms mostly north of a line from southeastern Maine to Miramichi. The development, if any, will occur during the middle to later part of the afternoon. Brief downpours and strong wind gusts are the main threat. Stronger cells are more likely to develop over area adjacent to the St. Lawrence valley and over southern Maine (North and West of NB)  

 

Jean-Marc

 

Day 1 Convective Outlook for Atlantic Canada Valid for August 1st, 2018

 

Convective Discussion

Today the bulk of the convective weather will be over Labrador with favourable dynamics and thermodynamics expected. The 12Z sounding from Goose Bay doesn’t indicate much instability however Sept- Ilses is more favourable for convection and could be considered representative of the airmass over Southwestern Labrador in the warm sector south of the front. Looking at the situation today there are two possible modes of convection; the first more likely scenario is fairly quick moving pulse storms with the potential for downdrafts exceeding 40 knots. The second possibility is that storms become longer lived with an increased likelihood of strong winds along with larger hail near or above warning criteria. Cape values through Southern Labrador are generally expected to be near 1000 j/kg however some areas could near 2000 J/kg this instability combined with high shear values near 50 knots in the  0-6 km could lead to severe storms.

 

Regional Impacts

 

Nova Scotia, PEI, and New Brunswick : No impacts expected

 

Newfoundland and Labrador: Thunderstorms should develop early this afternoon and continue into early this evening. Potentially strong wind gusts do to hybrid microbursts, long lived severe storms are also possible and tracking the storms on satellite and with lightning will provide the most helpful guidance once storms develop.

 

Mel Lemmon

Day 1 Convective Outlook for Atlantic Canada Valid for July 31, 2018

Convective discussion:

 

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will develop today across portions of Labrador associated with a weak cold front crossing the area..

 

Technical Discussion:

 

A weak cold front will trigger ISOL/SCT TS today as it swings across Labrador. 12Z YZV tephi shows a strong capping inversion at 600 mb, and given the weak dynamics and modest surface heating, that cap will be difficult to erode. No severe weather is XPCTD.

 

KCAR tephi looks like a “loaded gun” profile, but there is no trigger to develop any TS. SCT ACC/TCU is XPCTD across NB.

 

Regional Impacts:

 

Labrador: Isolated/scattered non-severe thunderstorms.

 

Newfoundland: nil

 

Nova Scotia: nil.

 

Prince Edward Island: nil.

 

New Brunswick: nil.

 

Jeremy

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Day 1 Convective Outlook for Atlantic Canada Valid for July 30, 2018

 

Convective discussion:

 

Scattered thunderstorms will persist today over central and eastern LAB under the influence of an upper level trough of low pressure. Scattered thunderstorms will develop early this afternoon over central and east/northeast NL in association with a surface trough and 500 mb short wave.

 

Technical Discussion:

 

Conditions look pretty good for near severe thunderstorms across portions of NL this afternoon. From 15-21 UTC there is a strong 250 jet mb with divergence over SE NL, placing the risk area above in the left exit region (which will promote ageostrophic motions). 12Z tephi from YJT shows good shear at close to 45 knots, good drying in the mid levels which would lead to possible strong wind gusts at the surface. Looking at SAT PIX there appears to be an area of PVA moving into WRN NL (associated with a somewhat decent short wave trough at 500 mb) which will move eastward and add to the potential for thunderstorms once the convective temperature is reached. 12Z surface analysis shows a surface trough near WRN NL (which should act as a trigger). Adjusting the YJT surface temperature to 27 degrees produces close to 1000 CAPE, with fairly good moisture near the surface. In addition instabilities are pretty good (LI’s of minus 4 to minus 6). All these ingredients point to the potential for severe thunderstorms, likely from the Buchans/Millertown area to regions north and east. For now near severe cells are expected, but this area will have to be monitored this afternoon and into early this evening.

 

Over LAB scattered TS will continue today east of the upper trough. Looking at the 12Z YYR sounding, freezing levels are pretty low, but the shear is really weak so no severe weather is expected. Small hail is almost a given under some of these cells.

 

Regional Impacts:

 

Newfoundland: Scattered afternoon/evening thunderstorms from central and east/northeast. Slight risk of severe.

 

Labrador: Scattered non-severe thunderstorms. Small hail likely.

 

Nova Scotia: nil.

 

Prince Edward Island: nil.

 

New Brunswick: nil.

 

Jeremy

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Day 1 Convective Outlook for Atlantic Canada Valid for July 29, 2018

 

Convective discussion:

 

Scattered thunderstorms associated with an upper level short over the Maritimes will move over WRN NL and SE LAB this afternoon and evening. Isolated thundershowers over parts of CNTRL/WRN LAB in the vicinity of an upper low will become more widespread this afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms will develop over ERN NB, ERN and NRN NS, PEI and Cape Breton this afternoon.

 

Technical Discussion:

 

A short wave trough and associated PVA triggered some early morning thunderstorms across CNTRL/NERN NB, and this area will move into WRN NL and SE LAB this afternoon. Upper air analysis shows a strong 250 mb jet axis (around 100 knots) and also a strong 500 mb jet (around 55 knots) with decent divergence. This area will not necessarily need lift from the surface, so cloud cover shouldn’t inhibit convection. There is an upper trough at 500/700 mb progressing slowly eastward, so falling heights and clearing skies should trigger some cells over portions of the MRTMS this afternoon. In addition a surface trough/cold front (analyzed at 12Z to be crossing NB) should aid in thunderstorm development. There is ample moisture near the surface, but the question is how quickly the surface dewpoints drop. 12Z tephi analysis shows good shear across the region (35-45 knots) but the instability is not as impressive as yesterday. In addition, adjusting the profiles for a Tmax of 26-27 produces about 500-700 CAPE, so the Buoyancy will not be that great either. Some storms could produce gusts to 40 knots with torrential downpours (precipitable water is 30-40 mm). Hail will not be a concern given the low buoyancy and associated weaker updrafts in cells. That being said small hail is possible within the stronger storms. Severe weather is not anticipated, however a very isolated severe cell in ERN NB, ERN/NRN NS and PEI cannot be ruled out.

 

Regional Impacts:

 

New Brunswick: Scattered non-severe thunderstorms across the east this afternoon. Slight risk further to the west.

 

Prince Edward Island: Scattered non-severe thunderstorms this afternoon.

 

Newfoundland: Scattered afternoon/evening thunderstorms in the west. Slight risk in the east.

 

Labrador: Scattered non-severe thunderstorms.

 

Nova Scotia: Scattered non-severe thunderstorms this afternoon in the north and east (as well as Cape Breton).

 

Jeremy