Convective Outlook Valid for Today and Tomorrow

Regional Impacts

 

Isolated thunderstorms with locally heavy downpours and gusty winds.

 

Convective Discussion

 

Thunderstorms can be expected for eastern New Brunswick… PEI… Northern Nova Scotia and into the Gulf of Saint Lawrence. There is some upper support with strong shear, however with low CAPE updrafts should remain weak. However given the favourable dynamics and warm water in the Gulf it is possible that some storms could become organised. Although unlikely strong surface sings could develop in some of these storms.

 

Thunderstorm Outlook for Day 1

 

 

Thunderstorm Outlook for Day 2

 

Convective Outlook Valid for Today and Tomorrow

Regional Impacts

 

Locally heavy downpours possible over southern New Brunswick and Nova Scotia.

 

Convective Discussion

 

In general weak updrafts can be expected today as warm advection aloft will tend to keep the local atmospheric conditions relatively stable. However we will continue to see ample moisture with upwards of 50mm of precipatable water available for southern areas and generally more than 40mm across the Maritimes. Embedded thunderstorms could be sufficient to generate local flash flooding this evening for southwest Nova Scotia and locally heavy downpours elsewhere. The threat of severe weather is minimal today, however conditions for tomorrow could be somewhat more hazardous depending on the remaining moisture and timing of the upper trough that will move over the region.

 

Thunderstorm Outlook for Day 1

 

 

Thunderstorm Outlook for Day 2

 

 

Convective Outlook Valid for Today and Tomorrow

Regional Impacts

A risk of isolated thundershowers over southeastern Labrador today.

A risk of some embedded thundershowers Saturday night across portions of western Nova Scotia.

 

Convective Discussion

A risk of thundershowers over SE LAB today associated with the upper low sitting over the area. SAT PIX does show some partial clearing which would help with some shallow CBs this afternoon. Highly doubt if anything will be observed near the coastal communities. Locally heavy downpours possible in some cells…if they develop.

 

A warm frontal trough will give the risk of embedded thundershowers Saturday night across portions of WRN NS. Heavy downpours would be the only threat.

 

Thunderstorm Outlook for Day 1

 

Thunderstorm Outlook for Day 2

 

Jeremy

Convective Outlook Valid for Today and Tomorrow

Regional Impacts: Thundershowers, rain and possible gusty winds up to 80 km/h are expected later today for the northern Gulf of St. Lawrence and the Northern Peninsula of Newfoundland. Small hail is possible as well.

 

Convective Discussion: Freezing levels are expected to be around 6500 feet and the equilibrium point is expected to be around 20,000 feet. So, low topped CB’s expected near the upper low. The low is vertically stacked from the sfc right up to 250 mb. So, not a lot of dynamics leading to severe weather. Just quite unstable due to cold air aloft and the water still quite warm. Cool air CB’s. In general, the winds are expected to be too strong for waterspouts since gales are expected.

 

Thunderstorm Outlook for Day 1

 

 

Thunderstorm Outlook for Day 2

 

Isolated t-shwrs are expected in Labrador tomorrow as the upper low pulls to the north. Convection is not expected to be severe since the upper low will starting to fill and the instability is no longer over the warm water.

 

Convective Outlook Valid for Today and Tomorrow

Thunderstorm Outlook for Day 1

 

Regional Impacts

Newfoundland: embedded TCus and Isolated thunderstorms giving mainly high rainfall amounts, exceeding 50 mm, combined with synoptic rainfall.

Southern Labrador: isolated to scattered thundershowers

Marine for southern Gulf of St. Lawrence, Cabot Strait and southern Gulf – Port au Port: Slight chance of waterspouts late this afternoon into this evening with gusts to gales possible.

 

Convective Discussion

A low over southern Labrador has a frontal trough extending southeast  to western Newfoundland. Ahead of the trough a strong southerly  jet extending from near the surface to midlevels is advecting significant moisture. While the tephi profiles are marginal at best, with low level capping,  lower level lift and moderate PVA, combined with some orographic forcing along the southern coast of the island, will give some enhance embedded TCus  and isolated CBs to enhance rainfall amounts. Winds will be brisk just with the synoptic forcing, and freezing levels are probably too high for anything significant.  For Labrador the situation is similar, but without the moisture feed. Almost moist adiabatic profiles with drying above 700 mb, with PWAT between `15-25 mm and southerly shear around 25 kts, argues  for isolated to scattered thundershowers with some gusty winds. With freezing levels near 5000 feet, small hail is definitely possible.

 

 

Thunderstorm Outlook for Day 2