Thunderstorm Outlook for Day 1
Regional Impacts
Newfoundland: embedded TCus and Isolated thunderstorms giving mainly high rainfall amounts, exceeding 50 mm, combined with synoptic rainfall.
Southern Labrador: isolated to scattered thundershowers
Marine for southern Gulf of St. Lawrence, Cabot Strait and southern Gulf – Port au Port: Slight chance of waterspouts late this afternoon into this evening with gusts to gales possible.
Convective Discussion
A low over southern Labrador has a frontal trough extending southeast to western Newfoundland. Ahead of the trough a strong southerly jet extending from near the surface to midlevels is advecting significant moisture. While the tephi profiles are marginal at best, with low level capping, lower level lift and moderate PVA, combined with some orographic forcing along the southern coast of the island, will give some enhance embedded TCus and isolated CBs to enhance rainfall amounts. Winds will be brisk just with the synoptic forcing, and freezing levels are probably too high for anything significant. For Labrador the situation is similar, but without the moisture feed. Almost moist adiabatic profiles with drying above 700 mb, with PWAT between `15-25 mm and southerly shear around 25 kts, argues for isolated to scattered thundershowers with some gusty winds. With freezing levels near 5000 feet, small hail is definitely possible.
Thunderstorm Outlook for Day 2
