Convective Discussion
No severe convection is expected across Atlantic Canada today with the exception of and increased risk for severe convection over the southern Maritime and Newfoundland marine districts.
Technical Discussion
Multiple capping inversions across the region resulting from an upper ridge to the west and a slow moving upper trough over the region will not provide conditions favourable for the development of severe convection over the majority of Atlantic Canada. For the southern Maritime/Newfoundland marine districts, persisting upper level divergence associated ahead of the upper trough will assist in the continued development of convection throughout the period. Aside from lightning, the primary risks with these cells would be wind gusts near 35-40 knots. The threat of wind is the largest where water temperatures are warmest in the shaded area above.
Regional Impacts
New Brunswick, Nova Scotia, PEI, Newfoundland, Labrador: No severe convection expected.
Labrador Marine: No severe convection expected.
Maritime Marine/Newfoundland Marine: Thunderstorm risk is largest over the southern waters. Primary threat – wind gusts near or exceeding 35 knots (stability dependent w.r.t sea surface temperatures), otherwise, no severe convection expected.
Marshall Hawkins