Convective Discussion
Slight risk for convection later in the day Saturday over northwestern Labrador as a trough moves in from the west. Meanwhile a slow moving trough south of Nova Scotia may generate conditions favourable for thunderstorms over most southern waters of the maritime marine district and possibly into the Newfoundland’s southwestern Grand Banks.
Technical Discussion
An upper trough moving toward Labrador has a history of producing thunderstorms in its wake over northern Quebec. The timing for the passage of this feature over western Newfoundland is not that great and the risk for severe convection during the outlook period for western Labrador is low. Over the southern Maritime Marine district similar instability remains and upper level triggered thunderstorms are possible with primary threats being wind gusts of 35 knots or slightly more if they form. Of course the mixing of these winds would be subject to the in-situ stability over the marine areas.
Regional Impacts
Newfoundland, Labrador, New Brunswick, PEI, Nova Scotia, and Labrador Marine: No severe convection expected.
Maritime and Newfoundland Marine: Slight risk of thunderstorms around the through over southern waters. Primary thunderstorm threats should they form would be wind gusts near gale force.
Marshall Hawkins