Thunderstorm Outlook for Day 1
A cold front will sweep through New Brunswick this afternoon, with a fair chance for severe weather.
Regional Impacts
New Brunswick and parts of Western Nova Scotia: heavy rain, high winds, and possible hail. For the rest of the Maritimes, local heavy rain and some gusty winds.
Labrador: local heavy rain and gusty winds.
Newfoundland: nothing significant.
Convective Discussion
A deep low over western Labrador with a surface manifestation north of Gaspe has a cold front extending southwest, roughly along the St. Lawrence River. Shear near and ahead of the front is healthy at about 40-50 diminishing to 24 kts in the south of NB and NS. There is a corridor of moisture ahead of the front being advected ENE, with surface dew points near 20 C and PWATs near 30-50 mm. Finally, there’s some clearing of low level clouds out ahead, mainly southern Maine, southern New Brunswick, and PEI and Nova Scotia. There’s little evidence for strong SRH, so straight line winds and bow echoes should be mainly the order of the day. With the PWATs higher rainfall amounts are likely, especially id there is some training. Surface CAPEs in excess of 1000 and possibly 2000 J/kg are possible, and despite freezing levels of 14,000 feet, hail is also possible with isolated supercells. Conditions should decrease late this afternoon into this evening as the main action moves into Nova scotia.
Thunderstorm Outlook for Day 2
The remnant of the system with give a chance of local heavy showers and gusty winds.
