Thunderstorm Outlook for Day 1
A frontal trough with an associated vort max from WV near Yarmouth maintained a line of thunderstorms this morning, with pcpn amounts up to 30 mm observed. This feature will continue into the afternoon for Nova Scotia with gradual weakening. There may be some thundershowers later this afternoon in northwestern New Brunswick. Nothing significant is expected for Labrador nor Newfoundland.
Regional Impacts
Maritimes: Local heavy showers ending later today for Nova Scotia and possibly for northwestern New Brunswick, who might also see some gusty winds.
Newfoundland and Labrador: nothing significant. A strike ot two south of forecasts areas are possible.
Convective Discussion:
For Newfoundland and Labrador there are significant inversions, preventing any significant convection in their forecast areas.
There is currently a deep ridge over eastern Newfoundland and a deep low slanting down from 250 mb over Hudson Bay to near Ungava Bay at the surface. There is also a trough over the Gulf with a couple of vort maxes, with the one near Yarmouth this morning giving some extra support for convection. Things should weaken a bit this afternoon along the trough. For New Brunswick there’s some moisture and low stratus trapped under an inversion that should erode with daytime heating this afternoon, especially in the northwest, where the shear should reach or exceed 30 kts. PWATs are healthy and around 30 mm. Impacts there are local heavy downpours and gusty winds.
Thunderstorm Outlook for Day 2
On Friday a deep trough extending southwest to the Great Lakes will move into our region with a healthy jet and a fair amount of moisture. Unadjusted ML CAPEs are near 500 J/kg, and with some extra heating things could get interesting.
