Thunderstorm Outlook for Today
Regional Impacts
Slight risk of a thunderstorm over southwestern NB late in the day, and later in the evening in the northwest. Main threat is heavy downpours
from storms that would advance over NB from Maine and the St. Lawrence valley.
Convective Discussion
The Upper ridge has continued to build over eastern Atlantic Canada in the past day or so. A moderate southwesterly flow in behind is advecting
warmer temperatures and higher humidity values across southern Ontario/Quebec/Maine. The environment will remain stable over NB, however
over western Maine the airmass will likely destabilize during the afternoon. Using a combination of Maniwaki and Albany for this morning's sounding -
MCAPE values of 600-1100 J/kg will likely produce deep convection to the west, which will result in scattered thunderstorms capable of producing
very heavy downpours in this moist environment. All sounding in the area of interest are showing precipitable water of 40+mm, with a maximum
of 44 for Maniwaki. Early this evening, some of the storms will try to enter the stable environment over western NB.
Thunderstorm Outlook for Thursday
Warm and humid airmass, slight risk of thunderstorms over parts of the region.
