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Thursday, May 17, 2018

Changes to the Convective outlook



For this convective season we will be moving to the Ninjo depiction of the convective outlook and away from the AMX version which we have been using. The color scheme will be very similar to what we used last year however new Ninjo version has a much cleaner look. One main difference will be that the convective discussion will be in the body of the email below the convective outlook image. In addition we will try to break our discussion into two sections with a Technical synopsis and and Regional Impacts, as required. Below is an example the what the new outlook will look like as well as one from last year for comparison. In general this should provide some consistency with Quebec region, however our regional SOP’s will vary the our images may not match up everytime. For the Atlantic region the color breakdown will generally be as follows.


GRAY - Risk of Thunderstorms: Thunderstorms that develop in this area will generally be less organized and will not likely meet warning criteria. Severe Thunderstorm Watches will not likely be required.

YELLOW - Slight Risk of Severe Thunderstorms: There is a low probability that weakly organized thunderstorms will develop, these thunderstorms may reach warning criteria. Severe Thunderstorm Watches may be required

ORANGE - Moderate Risk of Severe Thunderstorms: There is a moderate probability that organized thunderstorms will develop, thunderstorms are likely to reach warning criteria. Severe Thunderstorm Watches will likely be issued.

RED - High Risk of Severe Thunderstorms: There is a high probability that well organized thunderstorms will develop, these thunderstorms are likely to meet or exceed warning criteria. Severe Thunderstorms Watches will be issued.


*Not the actual depiction for this Date

Technical Synopsis……


Regional Impacts……



Old Convective Outlook


Tuesday, May 15, 2018

Convective Outlook for May 15th, 2018


There is a slight risk of thunderstorms across southwest Nova Scotia later this afternoon and this evening. This will be mainly in the form of elevated convection and even though there are strong winds aloft there is very little wind shear through the convective column. There is a slight chance that some stronger gusts could reach the surface but it is unlikely that they will approach warning criteria.