Convective Discussion
This is a very low probability of non-severe thunderstorms over southern New Brunswick and Western PEI late this afternoon ahead of an approaching cold front. For Eastern PEI and Northern Nova Scotia this risk will continue into this evening. There is a very slight chance of weak embedded thunderstorms with enhanced rainfall amounts possible should they develop.
Technical Discussion
Overall the amount of low level moisture and instability is not favorable for the development of thunderstorms with most unstable CAPE values < 250 J/kg. However with the presence of the approaching cold front stretching from Labrador down into New Brunswick as a trigger and an approaching cold trough aloft there is a slight risk that thunderstorms may develop. This is risk may also be enhanced slightly over areas of higher terrain and max daytime heating later today.
Regional Impacts
New Brunswick: Showers and risk of weaker thunderstorms over southern New Brunswick beginning late this afternoon. No significant impacts expected.
Nova Scotia: There is a slight risk of weak thunderstorms late this afternoon and this evening over parts of northern Nova Scotia. No significant impacts expected.
Prince Edward Island: There is a slight risk of weak thunderstorms late this afternoon and this evening. No significant impacts expected.
Newfoundland and Labrador: There is a slight risk of weak thunderstorms late this afternoon for southern Labrador and this afternoon and evening for western Newfoundland. No significant impacts expected.
Mel Lemmon