Convective Discussion:
Generally fairly benign for today into tonight. Some early morning thundershowers for Newfoundland have moved away. This afternoon isolated air mass thunder showers for western Nova Scotia possible this afternoon. For today not much expected for New Brunswick at this time, but if things push east a little faster there may be thundershowers near the Maine border late this afternoon or tonight. Severe weather possible for New Brunswick into Monday.
Technical Discussion:
For New Brunswick we have warm temperatures and good low level moisture, with dewpoints in the 16-20 C range, and precipitable water in the 30 to 50 mm range. However, there’s deep ridge and thermal ridge approaching from the west, and conditions might not improve until into the overnight period. An upper feature may trigger convection overnight into Monday, which might be severe.
Regional Impacts:
Newfoundland/Labrador/Prince Edward Island: none.
Nova Scotia: Isolated thundershowers possibly giving heavy downpours and some gusty winds.
New Brunswick: Low chance for today or this evening. Possibly something overnight or tomorrow.
Doug Mercer