Convective Discussion
In general it will be a quiet day across most of the region with a showers expected along the warm front that will push its way through Labrador, Eastern Quebec and into Western Newfoundland later today. In the short term convection will be somewhat suppressed do to the thermal ridge aloft and fairly low dew point temperatures. Later this afternoon however the dynamics and thermodynamics will become more favourable over western Labrador. Aloft the 250 mb jet and 500 mb jets will begin to strengthen with strong diffluence at the upper levels. As well the thermal ridge will continue to track east and we will get into some cooling aloft later today in the order of 2- 4 degrees at 500 mb, this along with the low level moisture advection will aid to destabilize the atmosphere. With the strength of the low level winds >40 kts and the impending thunderstorms, it is not unlikely that wind gusts will exceed warning criteria west of Labrador. Close attention should be paid to the speed and timing of thunderstorms that may move into western Labrador early this afternoon or evening. Should thunderstorms be very active wrt lightning watches may be required.
Regional Impacts
For Labrador
Strong winds and heavy rain possible should thunderstorms approach Western regions later today.
For PEI, NB, NS and Newfoundland
No Impacts expected.
Mel Lemmon