Convective Discussion
Upper level trough over central Quebec and southern Ontario today will be approaching the Maritimes tomorrow. An intensifying low pressure system currently near James Bay is expected to track northeastward into western Labrador by Tuesday evening. Some thundershower activity is likely over western Labrador again tomorrow along the warm from in the vicinity of the low. Warm and humid conditions will continue for the Maritimes ahead of the cold front which is expected to approach northwestern New Brunswick by Tuesday evening and slowly progress eastward. Showers and thundershowers are expected to develop early afternoon over northwestern NB ahead of the front. Uncertainly lies with the amount of cloud cover ahead of the cold front which could inhibit max heating especially over extreme northwestern NB. Besides frequent lightning, heavy downpours and strong gusts will be a threat along and ahead of the cold front. With upstream precipital water values of 30-50mm, torrential downpours are possible and some cells could reach severe criteria.
Roberta McArthur