Convective Discussion
There is a low probability that thunderstorms could develop over three main areas today, which are extreme western Labrador, southwestern New Brunswick and Newfoundland.
Over Newfoundland the heaviest area of Total Precipitable Water (TPW) has swung past the Island and weakened somewhat. With TPW values in the mid 30mm range heavier rainfall in embedded convection is possible but the heaviest rainfall will likely be just north of the Island or possible over the Northern Peninsula.
For extreme western Labrador a band of showers could impact the area this evening as a weak through moves through. Updrafts with this feature will be very weak, however there may be just enough depth to these storms to produce some lightning.
Finally across western New Brunswick we are looking at TCU’s and CB’s forming early this afternoon, the more intense cells will likely remain over Maine. However, some could impact SW New Brunswick as well. CAPE values will generally be as high as 500 J/kg and locally heavier downpours are possible in the 15mm to 20mm range should they affect NB. Some stronger gusty winds and small hail could be generated as well. However, warning level criteria are not expected.
Mel Lemmon