Convective Discussion
Convection today will be surface based with generally low CAPE’s. Highest CAPE will be northwestern New Brunswick this afternoon where up 700 J/kg is possible. Elsewhere CAPEs are in the 200-400 J/kg range. The dew points are generally in the 12-16 deg range and upstream dew points are similar. 0-6 km shear is low and in the 20-25 knot range. There is a strong 250 mb jet (60-80 knots) extending from southwestern Quebec to southwestern Nova Scotia. Otherwise mid and upper level winds are quite light over Atlantic Canada (30 knots or less). 500 mb temperatures are fairly uniform across eastern Canada at about -15 deg, so little change in stability aloft is expected.
Regional Impacts
Maritimes…
Risk of thundershowers over most of NB and western NS.
Newfoundland and Labrador…
Slight risk extreme western Labrador.
Forecaster
ASPC