Convective Discussion
The main area of focus will be over Maine with surface based convection having already begun, this convection will spill into New Brunswick this afternoon. Overall dynamics for severe thunderstorms are not overly favorable however there weak surface trough with moderate amount of CAPE > 1000J/kg and high moisture. The main concern will be heavy downpours possibly exceeding 25mm hour and with the low freezing levels 2-3 cm hail is also possible. It is unlikely but some of this convection could move across weather Nova Scotia this evening.
Over Newfoundland some embedded CB’s ahead of the surface low pressure system will generate locally heave rainfall amounts.
Regional Impacts
Nova Scotia
Locally heavy downpours, 15 - 20 mm possible if thunderstorms move into Southwestern parts of the province this evening.
New Brunswick
Main concern will be over western regions with heavy downpours 20-25mm and moderate sized hail possible.
Newfoundland
Embedded thunderstorms ahead of the surface low could give locally heavier rainfall of 15 – 20mm. Over western Labrador very low topped thunderstorms could develop with some rain and small hail.
PEI
None
