Convective Discussion:
Convective activity expected today over much of the Atlantic Canada with small chance of some convection becoming severe.
Lots of low level moisture and solar insolation will kick off some thundershowers across much of the Maritimes today. Shear is around the 25 – 35 kt mark and there are no substantial synoptic features to kick start and/or organize things. There is also a mid level warm nose which should cap off some but not all convective activity. So generally speaking, thundershowers over the Maritimes should be non severe but over area with shear near 35 kts, there is a chance of longer lived thundershowers that could become organized and become severe. There is also a possibility of tstorm formation over or along the Annapolis valley that could become quasi-stationary and extend out towards Antigonish county. The main threat if severe thunderstorms develop is heavy rainfall but hail and winds near criteria are also possible.
An area of low pressure over Labrador and an associated trough will kick off mid level tstorms over the area. Generally speaking, these thundershowers are expected to be non severe but a line currently over then Northeast Gulf could bring down some heavy downpours over parts of western Newfoundland.
Regional Impacts:
Maritimes: Slight chance of heavy rainfall reaching 25mm/hr.
Newfoundland: Slight chance of heavy rainfall reaching 25mm/hr over parts of western Newfoundland.
Labrador: Severe thunderstorms not expected.
Marine areas: Heavy rainfall over northeast gulf. Winds possibly reaching ~35 kts in thunderstorms.
Barrie MacKinnon