Convective Discussion
The focus will be over Newfoundland today where thunderstorms are expected. A very healthy strengthening jet over the area brings 0-6 km wind shear values near 40 kts which is expected to increase to near 60 kts later this afternoon for some areas. At the current forecasted temperatures highs, 500 J/kg can be expected with higher amounts possible if highs reach a few degrees above forecasted temps. A trough over the Maritimes will help kick start convective activity and low freezing levels of around 8500 ft could make hail a possibility under some of these storms. Areas that stay cloud covered throughout the day should see reduced convective activity. It is possible that some of the cells that develop may become severe. Heavy rainfall and hail are the main threat if severe thunderstorms develop. The increasing wind shear later today could actually help to limit convection as t-storms development could be sheared off.
Regional Impacts
New Brunswick
Non expected
Nova Scotia and PEI
None expected
Newfoundland
Thunderstorms of which a few severe thunderstorms are possible. Heavy rainfall and large hail are possible.
Labrador
Southernmost coastal Labrador – Risk of thunderstorms with slight chance of severe tstorms. Heavy rainfall and large hail possible.
Barrie MacKinnon