Thunderstorm Outlook for Day 1
Regional Impacts: no severe weather expected.
Convective Discussion: There is a large ridge centred north of Lake Superior and another large ridge east of the Grand Banks, with a weakening trough over the Atlantic Provinces between them. There is some dynamic support, but the ridging from the west is resulting in a fairly strong subsidence inversion capping convection for the Maritimes and western and northern Labrador. For southeastern Labrador there is a frontal trough, but increasing cloud and low precipitable water, as well as a higher inversion at about 700 mb, argues for a few moderate to heavy showers at worst.
Over Newfoundland the story is similar with the riding inversion being weaker, but still there between 850 and 700 mb, and without the trough in Labrador. Precipitable water is a bit higher, especially in the southeast, and deep layer shear is okay, but the inversion and relatively low dewpoints for most of the island are consistent with no CAPE likely in the guidance.
Thunderstorm Outlook for Day 2: no severe weather expected.