Thunderstorm Outlook for Day 1
Regional Impacts
Burin and Avalon Peninsulas of Newfoundland: showers heavy at times giving amounts near 50 mm.
Convective Discussion
This morning’s 12z analysis is showing the 500mb upper cold low anchored off the South Shore of Nova Scotia. Some convection is evident on the Satellite pictures south of the low and the Scotian slope, and lightning is limited to areas south of 40N. East of the low, very strong southerly winds are pushing a moisture plume originating from around 35N all the way to the Gulf of St. Lawrence and Newfoundland. The 12z sounding from YJT is showing nimbostratus up to 27,000ft and precipitable water of 35mm. The YYT sounding is showing a 50 knot low-level-jet and layers of instability in the mid-levels suggesting ACC’s which could result in rainfall rates of 10mm or more per hours later in the day and tonight. The probability of thunderstorm is not zero over NF, but the risk was left out of the outlook. The very moist airmass will continue to move northward over southeastern Labrador today and tonight.
Thunderstorm Outlook for Day 2
