Thunderstorm outlook for Day 1.
Convective Discussion
A slight chance of embedded convection today and tonight as a low currently south of Nova Scotia tracks towards NFLD tonight. If any convection does get initiated, it would have to go through a significant warm nose before reaching a level of positive buoyancy at which 200 to 300 J/Kg is possible which is not significant. However, a few cells passed over Sable island early this morning bringing near 60 mm over the island in a span of 3 hours (34 mm was reported in 1 hour). There was no lightning detected on these cells but due to the amount of rainfall over a short period of time, this does indicate that there could be some convective activity. This area of convection is expected to reach eastern Newfoundland later today so if the cells maintain their strength, it could result in some significant rainfall over a small period of time for parts of eastern NFLD.
Regional Impacts
Maritimes…
A slight chance of embedded convection over eastern NS. No impacts expected.
Newfoundland…
A chance of embedded convection this afternoon and tonight over NFLD. Locally heavy downpours possible.
Thunderstorm outlook for Day 2.
Convective Discussion
Some instability expected over southeastern NB Monday afternoon but a capping inversion at around 11,000 ft could limit the vertical extent and thus hamper convective activity. If this capping inversion is less significant than currently expected then non-severe thunderstorms are possible.
Regional Impacts
Maritimes…
None at this time.
Newfoundland…
None.
Barrie MacKinnon
Program Supervisor – Operations Support
Atlantic Storm Prediction Centre
Meteorological Service of Canada
45 Alderney Drive, Dartmouth
Nova Scotia, B2Y 2N6
Weather - Environment Canada
(902) 497-9317
Surveillant de Programme - Soutien aux Opérations
Centre de prévision des intempéries de la région de l'atlantique
Service météorologique du Canada
45 promenade Alderney, Dartmouth
Nouvelle-Écosse, B2Y 2N6
(902) 497-9317