Thunderstorm Outlook for Day 1
Regional Impacts
Non-severe thunderstorms for Labrador. Non–severe for part of the Maritimes, with a higher threat to western Nova Scotia and New Brunswick.
Convective Discussion
For the Maritimes there is plenty of moisture at least up to 850 mb, with PWATs up to 50+ mm and dewpoints above 20 C, and a LLJ advectiing more from New England. Shear a bit on the high side over northern NB but in the 25-40 kt range for the rest of the Maritimes. There is some PVA and upper jet support, and the upper trough farther west slanting down to the east. New Brunswick and Western Nova Scotia and PEI are mostly clear, but with Cu and TCu starting.
For Labrador there is a deep trough to the west and moving east, partially clearing skies in the west for good insolation, and healthy shear near 45 kts, but PWATs less than 20 mm and marginal instability. Isolated to scattered thundershowers with local heavy showers, followed by some wind gusts, and a chance of small hail with FZLVLs near 10,000 feet.
Thunderstorm Outlook for Day 2
Non–severe for part of the Maritimes, with a threat of severe thunderstorms for western Nova Scotia and New Brunswick. The highest threat is for heavy rainfall, followed by strong wind gusts to near warning levels.
