Regional Impacts
New Brunswick: Isolated to scattered thundershowers this afternoon and evening. Potential severe thundershowers giving downpours, gusty winds and hail.
NS/PEI: A risk of thundershowers this afternoon and evening.
NFLD/Labrador: Nil.
Convective Discussion
A cold front will cross New Brunswick afternoon and Nova Scotia this evening. ML cape values of 1000-1500 J/kg are expected and straight line wind shear near 30 kts. Freezing levels are high but decent cape exists in the hail growth zone. Dry mid layers will allow for gusty conditions this afternoon. Precipitable water values will be near 40 mm so rainfall is a concern. The upper support/dynamics are not strong so this event will be mostly driven by the surface trigger of the cold front and general instability caused by daytime heating.
Thunderstorm Outlook for Day 1
