Thunderstorm Outlook for Day 1
Regional Impacts
Isolated thunderstorms with heavier showers throughout NS, PEI, and Les Iles-de-la-Madeleine this afternoon and this evening. This activity will continue into the night for areas adjacent to the Gulf of St. Lawrence.
Some daytime convection might develop over southern Lab during the afternoon – an isolated/non-severe thunderstorm.
There is a slight chance of a thunderstorm along with brief heavier showers over southern areas of NF tonight.
Convective Discussion
Frontal wave at the surface approaching Yarmouth county at 12z. The associated low will travel northeasterward and reach the Northern Peninsula of NF Saturday. The airmass around this system is fairly moist with overcast layers of cloud extending from the low levels to 7-8 km, and embedded CB’s to about 9 km. Precipitable water from the area soundings are showing values of 30-25mm. Deterministic models are suggesting synoptic rainfall of 15 to 30 mm over the region, with the EU is hinting at areas of 40-50mm. Rainfall rates of 10mm/hr reported along the Atlantic coast west of Halifax this morning would support the idea of locally higher amounts.
Thunderstorm Outlook for Day 2 – Saturday
Late day thunderstorms with heavy showers are possible especially for areas adjacent to the Gulf of St. Lawrence.
