Thunderstorm Outlook valid for Today – WED, Aug 11, 2021
Regional Impacts
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible over western portions of Labrador today. Elsewhere, non-severe thunderstorms are possible, lasting into overnight hours for areas in NS.
Convective Discussion
An advancing long-wave trof will trigger thunderstorms in central and northern Quebec and into adjacent Atlantic regions. These storms will mainly be rainmakers. Shear is okay at 15-20Kts, and Pwats remain near 35-45mm. Convection into tomorrow morning across SW NS is likely to be more elevated in nature producing a lot of lightning.
Thunderstorm Outlook valid for Tomorrow – THURS, Aug 12, 2021
Regional Impacts
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible in New Brunswick. Scattered non-severe thunderstorms are also forecast across many areas of the Maritimes.
Convective Discussion
An invading hot and humid tropical airmass is bringing with it a lot of potential energy. With dew points above 20C and sfc temps near 29C (or higher), large amounts of CAPE can be realized from the surface. It won’t take much as a trigger to get things going…..a shortwave impulse or even a sea breeze convergence line. There is ~25Kts of 0-6k shear, and Pwats in the RDPS are near 55mm. Model suggested 500-700mb deltT is 19 in places tomorrow. This was realized across the Ohio valley and New York State yesterday afternoon.
