Thunderstorm Outlook for Day 1 - Sunday
Regional Impacts
Isolated non-severe thunderstorms over Central NF and southeastern Labrador this afternoon.
Convective Discussion
The upper air analysis from this morning shows an upper cold low over northern Labrador with the upper trough extending from the low to Georgian Bay. The cold pool aloft extends to the Gaspe and Central NF where limited daytime heating might be enough to trigger some isolated CB’s with tops to 7-8 km. The energy is not great but given the cold air aloft small hail is not out of the question.
At the surface there is a weak frontal band which stretches from southeastern Labrador along the St. Lawrence Valley to Lake Ontario. An associated wave over Lake Ontario will push cloud an moisture over the Maine late today and into Maritimes Monday. Some of the guidance is suggesting some instability over northern NB on Monday, but it appears to be weak at this time. A second wave forming near the US mid-Atlantic coast will travel south of NS on Monday. Embedded Thunderstorms will likely stay offshore, but one or two thunderstorms could brush the Atlantic coast of NS.
Thunderstorm Outlook for Day 2 – Monday
Slight risk of thunderstorms for central Labrador and northwestern NB.
