Thunderstorm Outlook valid for Today – Sept 6th, 2021.
Regional Impacts
Heavy rainfall and moderate winds are possible if discrete severe cells develop in NW areas of New Brunswick this afternoon. Risk of isolated non-severe thundershowers across rest of province and PEI.
Convective Discussion
With Pwats near 45mm in places, the greatest hazard today is heavy rain. As a large long wave trough sweeps through the region from ONT/QUE late this afternoon and evening, thunderstorms could be triggered in this unstable airmass. Mixed CAPE values are 500-1000J/kg, with 0-6k shear of near 40kTs. Storms are not expected to be widespread at this time as the timing will be slightly out of phase with the main LLJ. They are also not expected (at this issue time) to be more than marginally severe on the Canadian side of the border due to rainfall >25mm/hr, and possible gusts of 60km/h.
Thunderstorm Outlook valid for Tomorrow – Sept 7th, 2021.
Regional Impacts
Non-severe embedded thundershowers forecast for many areas near the centre of the upper low.
Convective Discussion
This weather feature brings with it fall-like characteristics. The cool upper low aloft will be able to trigger a few lightning strikes within a general showery weather pattern. This is the last convective outlook issued by the ASPC Summer Severe Weather Support Desk for 2021.
Forecaster: TIRONE