Regional Impacts: NS/NB and Labrador: Lightning, and downpours are the hazards of concern today.
Convective Discussion: up to 500 J/kg of MLCAPEs will yield isolated non-severe storms in western NS/NB where clearing is anticipated to occur. Bulk shears will initially be rather low but will increase to ~ 20 kts later this afternoon, however the thermodynamics will become less favourable later in the day as a TROWAL rotates in from the NE stabilizing the atmosphere. From a jet dynamic standpoint this region is also briefly in the left exit region of a 120kt jet max early this afternoon before it advect eastward over the western marine district. Slightly greater instability of ~500-600 J/Kg MLCAPEs in the terrain in southern Labrador will also see some isolated pulse storms with low bulk shears and slow storm motion of ~10 kts or less. Elevated convection giving lightning over the southeastern marine district will continue along the leading edge of the upper trough today.
Two areas of thunderstorms possible tomorrow, primarily in the terrain along the northwestern Labrador Quebec border, and in northern NB. In Northern NB inverted V-profiles could yield some gusty winds in TCU showers, but instability is marginal once mixed for a reasonable dew point and may not yield much in the way of lightning.
Thunderstorm Outlook for Day 1
Thunderstorm Outlook for Day 2
