Thunderstorm Outlook for Today
Isolated non-severe thunderstorms
Regional Impacts
NB: None
NS: Towering Cumulus cloud over northern regions possibly giving a brief shower
PEI: Towering Cumulus cloud possibly giving a brief shower
NF: None
Marine waters: Isolated Thunderstorms over northern Gulf of St. Lawrence today, and south coast of NF tonight.
Convective Discussion
Current satellite imagery is showing an Upper / Surface Low pair over Maine / NB producing extensive cloud cover and occasional rain. At the surface, a warm front extends from the low northeastward to great northern peninsula of NF. The intersection of this feature with a strong southerly low-level jet will continue to support isolated non-severe thunderstorms over the northern Gulf of St. Lawrence. A strong southern flow of moist air prevails over NF ahead of the upper low feature and it is producing pockets of heavy rain along the west coast.
The strong southerly flow has been advecting very stable air in the mid-levels which is favoring a corridor of dry air over central NS this morning. The sounding at Shearwater has a very strong inversion at a height of 3-4 km which will likely limit the amount of vertical development of the cumulus cloud. In fact, a max temperature of 24 (and dew point of 10) only renders about 200 J/kg of MUCAPE, however topographic features such as the Cobequid Mountains could potentially provide the necessary lift for an isolated tall TCU/CB.
Thunderstorm Outlook for Monday
No thunderstorms expected