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Sunday, June 19, 2022

Convective Outlook Valid for Today and Tomorrow

Thunderstorm Outlook for Today

Isolated non-severe thunderstorms

 

Regional Impacts

NB: None

NS: Towering Cumulus cloud over northern regions possibly giving a brief shower

PEI: Towering Cumulus cloud possibly giving a brief shower

NF: None

Marine waters: Isolated Thunderstorms over northern Gulf of St. Lawrence today, and south coast of NF tonight.

 

Convective Discussion

Current satellite imagery is showing an Upper / Surface Low pair over Maine / NB producing extensive cloud cover and occasional rain. At the surface, a warm front extends from the low northeastward to great northern peninsula of NF. The intersection of this feature with a strong southerly low-level jet will continue to support isolated non-severe thunderstorms over the northern Gulf of St. Lawrence. A strong southern flow of moist air prevails over NF ahead of the upper low feature and it is producing pockets of heavy rain along the west coast.

The strong southerly flow has been advecting very stable air in the mid-levels which is favoring a corridor of dry air over central NS this morning. The sounding at Shearwater has a very strong inversion at a height of 3-4 km which will likely limit the amount of vertical development of the cumulus cloud. In fact, a max temperature of 24 (and dew point of 10) only renders about 200 J/kg of MUCAPE, however topographic features such as the Cobequid Mountains could potentially provide the necessary lift for an isolated tall TCU/CB.

 

 

Thunderstorm Outlook for Monday

 

No thunderstorms expected