Thunderstorm Outlook for Today
Regional Impacts
NB: None.
NS: Isolated thunderstorms possible over inland areas of southwestern NS.
PEI: None
NF&Lab: None
Marine waters: Isolated embedded thunderstorms possible over the southern edge of the slope waters.
Convective Discussion
Very little, if any, convection is expected over land areas of Atlantic Canada today. Warm air aloft associated with an upper ridge over New Brunswick and Newfoundland Labrador is giving profiles too stable for thunderstorm activity to occur. There is a slight possibility of surface based convection this afternoon over inland areas of southwestern NS. However, as was the case yesterday, there is a subsidence inversion above 700 mb. Even though there is ample heat and moisture in the low levels, the cap associated with this subsidence inversion makes it difficult for thunderstorms to form. They can’t be ruled out, however.
Embedded thunderstorms are possible over the extreme southern slope waters associated with a persistent area of showers.
Thunderstorm Outlook for Monday morning.
Regional Impacts
NB: None
NS: None
PEI: None
NF&Lab: None
Marine waters: Isolated embedded thunderstorms over the slope waters.
Convective Discussion
Thunderstorm activity is not expected over land areas in Atlantic Canada overnight tonight. The profiles remain too warm aloft.
Thunderstorm Outlook for Monday afternoon and evening
Regional Impacts
NB: None
NS: None
PEI: None
NF&Lab: Scattered thunderstorms are possible over western Labrador
Marine waters: Isolated embedded thunderstorms remain possible over the southern edge of the slope waters.
Convective Discussion
An approaching upper trough and associated PVA across Quebec will give conditions conducive to thunderstorms in Western Labrador Monday afternoon and evening. In addition, there is a strong mid-level and upper level jet moving into the region. So any thunderstorms that form will have enough shear and upper support to keep them going. The models indicate a lot of mid-level cloud, so initiation from the sfc is unlikely.
Conditions remain too stable for convective activity over the Maritimes.
Thunderstorms remain possible over the southern slope waters.
Thunderstorm Outlook for Tuesday
Regional Impacts
NB: Scattered thunderstorms possible
NS: Scattered thunderstorms possible
PEI: Scattered thunderstorms possible
NF&Lab: None
Marine waters: Isolated embedded thunderstorms remain possible over the southern edge of the slope waters.
Convective Discussion
A cold front will track across the Maritimes Tuesday and Tuesday night possibly triggering thunderstorms.
