ECCC Thunderstorm Outlook valid for July 15th, 2022.
Regional Impacts
Broadly, scattered non-severe thunderstorms are possible over many regions of Atlantic Canada this afternoon and evening. Additionally, isolated severe thunderstorms are possible in areas of Nova Scotia and eastern portions of New Brunswick.
Convective Discussion
As sticky humidity continues across the Maritimes today, the risk for thunderstorms follows suit. With dew points expected to remain near 17C, and some good pockets of direct solar heating, things should fire off this afternoon. Upper features are in place to sustain storms today especially near Truro and Bathurst to severe limits. Hail, gusty winds, and heavy rainfall can all be expected under a strong cell. Lapse rates of 500-700mb are similar to yesterday across Maine and NB (16-18). ML CAPE values are a bit better than yesterday near 1200J/kg, and 0-6k shear is 35-40Kts. Development of storms will be monitored closely and watches may be required. Storm motion today is expected to be E-ly at 15kts. A supercell will head SE at similar speeds should it develop. Additionally, the sweeping cold trof from the decaying Labrador low will spark a few thundershowers in marine waters and some areas of Newfoundland. The dynamics at play in these regions are much weaker.
Thunderstorm Outlook for Day 1
Thunderstorm Outlook for Day 2
*slight risk of thundershowers across northern tier of NB, and extreme western Labrador as upper trof continues to affect central Quebec.
Forecaster: TIRONE